Trefis Team
3 min read
Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) is scheduled to report its earnings on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. The company has a market value of about $120.1 billion. Over the last twelve months it generated $21.9 billion in revenue and $5.8 billion in operating profit, with net income of $4.4 billion.
How the stock moves after the release will depend on how the results and outlook compare with expectations. What history can offer is the base rate: how often, and how far, the stock has moved after past reports.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
How Often Has Automatic Data Processing Stock Risen After Earnings?
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
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There are 19 earnings releases in the last five years, with 12 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 63% of the time.
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Over the last three years that share rises to 82%, across 11 releases.
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The median of the 12 positive 1D returns is 2.4%, and the median of the 7 negative ones is -4.7%.
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The largest one-day reactions were 8.0% and -9.2%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
Do Early Post-Earnings Moves Continue?
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. Over five years, all of these correlations are below 0.40 in absolute terms, so the early post-earnings move has not reliably predicted what followed. Over the last three years the link is stronger, at 0.44 and 0.59, but that rests on only 11 releases.
