The S&P 500 currently sits near its record high despite elevated oil prices, but history says the index would fall sharply during a recession.
Key Points
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Billionaire Ken Griffin recently warned that a recession would be inevitable if the Strait of Hormuz (a key oil transit route) remains closed for another six to 12 months.
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The S&P 500 is currently near its record high, but the index has performed poorly during past recessions, suffering an average peak-to-trough decline of 32%.
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Wall Street remains optimistic about the stock market; the consensus estimate among 21 analysts says the S&P 500 will add 7% in the remaining months of 2026.
