Sam Daodu
5 min read
Quick Read
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Bitcoin surged 36% while SPY flatlined and gold dropped 1.4%, yet the 90-day correlation still ties BTC to gold at a six-year high.
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Two of Bitcoin’s three rally drivers reverse quickly. Treasury buybacks and short squeezes fall into this category, making sustained spot ETF inflows the only durable demand signal.
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Five-year yields approaching 5%, a 17-year high, challenge Bitcoin’s rally; holding above $80,875 as yields rise would signal a genuine correlation break.
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Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has surged by 36% since August 18, 2026, while the two assets it typically moves in sync with have shown little movement. Over the same period, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY) returned only 0.05%, and SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA: GLD) dropped 1.4%. This significant gap has led to renewed discussions about whether the established correlation between Bitcoin, stocks, and gold is coming to an end.
Now priced near $84,000, Bitcoin’s remarkable rise raises the question: Can five weeks of divergence be enough to declare the long-standing relationship with these assets over, or is this a short-term anomaly that might revert to the historical trend?
A Five-Week Window and a 90-Day Window Can Disagree, and They Do
Correlation is a statistic ranging from minus one to plus one, which describes how two assets have moved in relation to each other over a specific period. A score of plus one means they move together perfectly, zero indicates no relationship, and minus one shows they move in opposite directions. Since correlation can vary across time frames, a five-week correlation reading may differ from a 90-day reading, and both can be valid.
Currently, Bitcoin’s performance over the five weeks leading to September 23 shows a rise against a flat stock market and a declining gold price—this occurs in a calm context, with the VIX index, which measures expected stock market volatility, closing at 14.21, below the 15 mark that typically indicates stability.
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However, the 90-day correlation shows Bitcoin at a six-year high with gold as of mid-September. Both views have their merits, but the longer 90-day trend presents a stronger case against the shorter five-week divergence.
