Shares of AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) fell 5% in premarket trading on Monday, with sector peers RKLB and LUNR declining 3% and RDW and RKTO dropping 4% amid renewed launch concerns.
The broader sell-off followed a Blue Origin explosion during a hotfire test of its New Glenn rocket at Cape Canaveral, ahead of the vehicle’s anticipated fourth mission.
The rocket had been expected to launch Amazon’s Project Kuiper satellites before the explosion occurred during testing, with Blue Origin confirming all personnel were safe and an investigation underway.
Satellite communications analyst Tim Farrar issued a cautious warning on X, saying “3-5 launches on F9 this year is the best you can hope for” when addressing ASTS investors about the company’s deployment pace.
Farrar added that even the upper end of that launch range would likely require AST to secure additional Falcon 9 opportunities beyond its current plans.
More significantly, Farrar said continuous commercial service is unlikely before 2028 and argued that intermittent coverage would not generate “meaningful revenue” in 2027.
The Blue Origin incident marks the second major New Glenn setback in less than two months, following a May mission in which an upper-stage anomaly prevented AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird 7 satellite from reaching its intended orbit.
AST SpaceMobile signed a multi-launch agreement with Blue Origin in late 2024 to deploy future Block 2 BlueBird satellites aboard New Glenn, with the rocket’s large payload fairing well-suited for carrying multiple BlueBird spacecraft per mission.
The company needs 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit to provide continuous commercial coverage across key U.S. markets, and CEO Abel Avellan recently said the company remains “on target” to deploy that number this year.
AST President Scott Wisniewski has said the company expects “a handful” of launches from both Blue Origin and SpaceX and believes sufficient launch capacity exists to support its roadmap.
Deutsche Bank downgraded ASTS to ‘Hold,’ citing concerns that launch delays could affect the company’s 2026 deployment targets, while Roth Capital maintained its ‘Buy’ rating but warned that the latest Blue Origin incident could push commercial constellation deployment from late 2026 into early 2027.
LUNR was caught up in concerns around NASA’s lunar ambitions, as Blue Origin holds lunar-related work and remains a major participant in Artemis and future moon infrastructure programs, with NASA saying it is assessing the potential impacts of the incident.
RKTO’s decline appeared largely driven by profit-taking after the company, which recently rebranded from biotech firm Hoth Therapeutics, surged more than 100% over two sessions following its AI, semiconductor and space tech strategy announcement and its joining of AMD’s AI Developer Program.
The premarket losses reversed a strong rally across space stocks the prior week, which had accelerated after SpaceX filed for what could be the largest IPO in Wall Street history, with the company estimating its total addressable market at $28.5 trillion.
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was rated ‘extremely bullish’ for ASTS, LUNR and RDW, while RKLB stood apart with sentiment rated ‘neutral’ amid ‘normal’ message volume, and over the past year RKLB has surged 425%, ASTS has gained 381% and LUNR has climbed 267%, while RDW and RKTO are up 70% and 68% respectively.
