Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) stock hit $1,000 for the first time in February 2025, but it’s been up and down since then as the market accounts for changing economic trends.
Costco itself has been demonstrating outstanding performance the whole time, though, and the market has been feeling more positive about it.
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Can it get back to $1,000 again before the end of the year?
The “inflation-proof” model
Costco is often called a “recession-proof” or “inflation-proof” stock because it can do well in adverse circumstances. In fact, the company often does even better in rough economies, because that’s when its customers need it even more.
The company strives to offer the best prices possible, and it markets products in bulk and in bare-bones warehouses to cut out extraneous costs. It marks up prices to cover whatever associated costs remain, and it makes money from annual membership fees. Loyal customers make the most of their memberships when every penny counts, driving high volume when things are toughest.
That’s why sales growth is accelerating as inflation persists. Revenue increased 11.6% year over year in the 2026 fiscal third quarter (ended May 10), and comparable sales (comps) were up 9.8%. Earnings are also rising despite rising costs, and earnings per share (EPS) rose from $4.28 last year to $4.93 this year in the third quarter.
What’s happening next
The market seems less worried about how inflation will impact Costco as it sees Costco thriving. Management noted that its gas stations are attracting new business with higher oil prices, and these members usually buy more in stores, too. As oil prices come down, some of the people who went out of their way to fill up at Costco might not continue to do so, which could be a headwind, but it could also prove to be sticky as these members appreciate the value.
Management has been working on various digital services, including e-commerce and online registrations, that are adding to the mix. E-commerce sales increased 21.5% year over year in the third quarter, and online registrations are attracting younger shoppers.
New member growth was slightly lower than usual at 4.1%, but management didn’t seem worried about the long-term impact. It’s expecting to open about 30 stores annually over the next few years, which should lead to more sign-ups and higher sales.
