Capital One slides as Q1 results miss expectations and credit-cost focus returns

Capital One Financial (COF) is down 5.2% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The drop appears tied to Capital One’s first-quarter 2026 earnings release, which came in slightly below market expectations on key headline metrics. Even with higher net income year over year, investors often react negatively when results miss consensus and when credit-loss provisioning remains a central part of the narrative.

Details:

Capital One reported first-quarter 2026 net income of about $2.2 billion (roughly $3.34 per diluted share), alongside an adjusted EPS figure that narrowly missed expectations.

Total net revenue for the quarter was disclosed at roughly $15.2 billion, down sequentially, which may have added pressure to the stock despite expense improvements.

Provision for credit losses was roughly $4.1 billion, keeping investor attention on credit normalization and charge-off risk in cards and consumer lending.

The company highlighted stronger pre-provision earnings versus the prior period, but that strength did not offset the market’s focus on the “miss” and credit-cost sensitivity.

Sources:

Capital One Investor Relations, U.S. SEC (EDGAR), Associated Press, Investing.com

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$COF Insider Trading Activity

$COF insiders have traded $COF stock on the open market 44 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 44 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $COF stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

RICHARD D FAIRBANK (Chairman and CEO) has made 0 purchases and 17 sales selling 206,973 shares for an estimated $46,192,770.
NEAL BLINDE (President, Commercial Banking) has made 0 purchases and 9 sales selling 81,335 shares for an estimated $16,848,294.
FRANK G. LAPRADE,III (Chief Enterprise Srvcs Officer) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 17,840 shares for an estimated $3,961,081.
RAVI RAGHU (Pres, Software, Intl & Sm Bus) sold 13,450 shares for an estimated $3,362,500
LIA DEAN (Pres, Banking & Prem. Products) has made 0 purchases and 4 sales selling 11,408 shares for an estimated $2,534,628.
CELIA KARAM (Pres, Retail Bank) has made 0 purchases and 4 sales selling 8,207 shares for an estimated $1,808,883.
MATTHEW W COOPER (General Counsel & Corp Secy) has made 0 purchases and 3 sales selling 6,000 shares for an estimated $1,381,900.
JASON P. HANSON (Pres.- Global Payment Network) sold 3,729 shares for an estimated $764,445
MARK DANIEL MOUADEB (President, Card) has made 0 purchases and 3 sales selling 3,102 shares for an estimated $640,285.

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative’s insider trading dashboard.

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$COF Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 1,011 institutional investors add shares of $COF stock to their portfolio, and 905 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 20,657,617 shares (-75.2%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $5,006,580,056
VIKING GLOBAL INVESTORS LP removed 4,436,189 shares (-60.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $1,075,154,766
DODGE & COX removed 2,944,850 shares (-24.3%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $713,713,846
CAPITAL RESEARCH GLOBAL INVESTORS removed 2,538,515 shares (-30.1%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $615,234,495
FMR LLC added 2,026,496 shares (+12.1%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $491,141,570
HARRIS ASSOCIATES L P added 1,800,024 shares (+19.9%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $436,253,816
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC removed 1,607,493 shares (-75.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $389,592,003

To track hedge funds’ stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative’s institutional holdings dashboard.

$COF Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $COF stock 6 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 3 have been purchases and 3 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $COF stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative’s congressional trading dashboard.

$COF Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $COF in the last several months. We have seen 5 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

BTIG issued a “Buy” rating on 01/23/2026
Morgan Stanley issued a “Overweight” rating on 01/20/2026
TD Cowen issued a “Buy” rating on 01/08/2026
Barclays issued a “Overweight” rating on 01/06/2026
Citigroup issued a “Buy” rating on 12/31/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $COF, check out Quiver Quantitative’s $COF forecast page.

$COF Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $COF recently. We have seen 12 analysts offer price targets for $COF in the last 6 months, with a median target of $270.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Jeffrey Adelson from Morgan Stanley set a target price of $273.0 on 04/16/2026
Donald Fandetti from Wells Fargo set a target price of $260.0 on 04/09/2026
Richard Shane from JP Morgan set a target price of $213.0 on 04/09/2026
Ryan Nash from Goldman Sachs set a target price of $260.0 on 04/07/2026
Terry Ma from Barclays set a target price of $226.0 on 04/06/2026
John Pancari from Evercore ISI Group set a target price of $222.0 on 04/06/2026
Brian Foran from Truist Securities set a target price of $275.0 on 01/27/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative’s disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.