Michael Douglass
3 min read
Key Takeaways
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Constellation Energy jumped 10% after a third-quarter beat and a guidance raise to $12.50-$12.80.
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AI hardware stocks also rebounded from last week’s midterm selloff.
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Constellation has signed about 8,500 MW of long-term deals this year, with no sign of the slowdown investors feared.
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The next test is regulators’ rules for connecting data centers to the grid.
Constellation Energy (CEG:NASDAQ) is up 10% today after a third-quarter beat of about 30% and a guidance raise. These are the first hard numbers on AI power demand since Democrats swept the midterms last week.
The AI hardware stocks that sold off with it are bouncing too.
Raised for the second time this year
The quarter beat on both lines:
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Adjusted EPS of $5.06, against a $3.89 consensus
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Revenue of $9.55 billion, against a $9.35 billion consensus
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Full-year guidance of $12.50-$12.80, up from $11.50-$12.50
Management credits the Calpine fleet bought in January and higher capacity prices. This is the second time this year Constellation has raised its midpoint, which now sits above what analysts expected for 2026 going into the report:
That should push the 2026 estimate up. New contracts are what would lift 2027 and 2028 along with it.
TIKR tracks 25 analysts on Constellation Energy. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Constellation Energy, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Constellation Energy’s Analyst Ratings
“No costs being borne by existing customers”
The post-midterm fear was that new state leaders would slow the data center buildout. Constellation’s answer: about 8,500 MW of long-term deals this year, including 20-year contracts with Amazon and Google that pay for new nuclear capacity.
CEO Joe Dominguez said the new megawatts “are coming online with no costs being borne by existing customers,” adding: “Our approach proves we can power the growing digital economy while strengthening our electric grid – all with private investment.”
Every supplier to the buildout needs that argument to win. With no company-specific news of their own, Coherent (COHR:NYSE) is up 18%, Astera Labs (ALAB:NASDAQ) is up 15%, Lumentum (LITE:NASDAQ) is up 12%, and Vertiv (VRT:NYSE) is up 10% with the rest of the data center trade today.
Cheaper than it was
The stock came into today well below its usual forward multiple:
At Friday’s close, it traded at 21x forward earnings, against a three-year average of 26x and a peak of 38x in October 2025. Today’s jump only takes it to about 22x.
