It’s been a mediocre week for Dr. Martens plc (LON:DOCS) shareholders, with the stock dropping 18% to UK£0.53 in the week since its latest half-yearly results. Revenues came in 6.3% below expectations, at UK£290m. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of UK£0.024 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we’ve aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Dr. Martens after the latest results.
Following last week’s earnings report, Dr. Martens’ five analysts are forecasting 2027 revenues to be UK£725.5m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 25% to UK£0.036. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of UK£778.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.049 in 2027. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share estimates.
View our latest analysis for Dr. Martens
The consensus price target fell 5.8% to UK£0.90, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. That’s not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Dr. Martens analyst has a price target of UK£1.41 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at UK£0.57. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that shrinking revenues are expected to moderate over the period ending 2027 compared to the historical decline of 4.9% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.0% per year. So it’s pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Dr. Martens to suffer worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year’s earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Dr. Martens going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we’ve spotted with Dr. Martens (including 1 which is a bit unpleasant) .
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