Earnings Beat: Traton SE Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Shareholders might have noticed that Traton SE (ETR:8TRA) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.5% to €31.78 in the past week. Revenues were €11b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at €3.34, an impressive 181% ahead of estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality.

After the latest results, the 19 analysts covering Traton are now predicting revenues of €49.6b in 2027. If met, this would reflect a decent 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to shrink 7.7% to €5.76 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €50.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of €5.79 in 2027. The consensus analysts don’t seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there’s been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Traton

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of €38.14, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That’s not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Traton at €48.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €23.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Traton’s growth to accelerate, with the forecast 8.0% annualised growth to the end of 2027 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 6.6% per annum over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 6.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it’s pretty clear that Traton is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there’s been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at €38.14, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn’t be too quick to come to a conclusion on Traton. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year’s profits. We have forecasts for Traton going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we’ve discovered 2 warning signs for Traton (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.