For most investors, the next S&P 500 earnings season will probably feel a lot like a test of whether a handful of companies can continue carrying the story.
Goldman Sachs expects another strong quarter, but its forecast suggests the benefits of the AI spending surge are still heavily concentrated.
Nevertheless, shareholders could see significantly different results depending on who owns the companies that build, supply, or directly monetize AI infrastructure.
It’s important to note that the broader market isn’t moving in lockstep. Some companies are still facing sluggish growth, tighter margins, and higher costs, even as AI-linked businesses continue to pull the index higher.
That creates a more complicated setup than a simple “strong earnings” headline suggests.
The real question now is whether AI spending can begin to create a broader earnings lift across the market, or if the next season will reinforce how dependent the S&P 500 has become on a relatively narrow group of winners.
Goldman Sachs expects another strong earnings season, with AI doing more of the work
Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 to deliver another robust quarter of bottom-line growth, with AI investment accounting for an increasingly large share of the gains.
Consensus forecasts call for Q3 S&P 500 earnings per share to rise 27% from a year earlier, according to an Oct. 2 report led by Goldman strategist Ben Snider, as reported by Seeking Alpha.
That would still be a very strong result, even if it marks a slowdown from the roughly 33% growth recorded in Q2, after accounting distortions are stripped out.
Goldman also expects most companies to beat consensus estimates again.
AI infrastructure companies are expected to account for more than 50% of the S&P 500’s earnings growth this quarter, while information technology and energy together are projected to generate nearly 80% of the total increase.
AI is driving the index, but the average company tells a different story
Goldman’s headline forecast looks strong, but perhaps the more revealing number is 68%. That’s how much of the S&P 500 earnings growth the firm expects in Q3 from just 10 companies to generate.
Micron (MU) and Nvidia (NVDA) alone are projected to account for more than one-third. Micron has already set the tone, delivering year-over-year earnings growth of 1,003% and beating expectations.
Information technology and energy together are expected to produce nearly 80% of total index earnings growth.
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