Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) is a restaurant industry pioneer. It popularized the fast-casual dining concept. The focus on fresh, customizable food, fast service, and reasonable prices has made the business a household name.
Shares have been feeling the heat. As of Oct. 14, they have fallen 18% in 2026 and are 56% off their record from June 2024. The rest of the year may tell a different story.
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Here’s what history says the fourth quarter will bring for this restaurant stock.
Past trends reveal mixed performance
This decade, the performance of Chipotle’s shares has been up and down in Q4. In the fourth quarters of 2021, 2022, 2024, and 2025, the stock fell by single digits. However, in 2020 (+12%) and 2023 (+25%), shares posted double-digit returns. So far this month, they have dropped by over 4%. Q4 2026 is off to a slow start.
At the same time, the S&P 500 index has climbed almost 1%. The positive view is that by the end of this year, Chipotle will end Q4 with a strong gain. This will continue the every-three-year streak, as the fourth quarters of 2020 and 2023 saw winning results.
Navigating a weaker industry
As mentioned, Chipotle shares have been cut by more than half since the summer of 2024. At that time, it was clear that the stock was extremely expensive. It traded at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 73.2. Expectations were sky-high. That’s not surprising, given that net income surged 183% from first-quarter 2021 to Q1 2024. The business was hitting its stride.
In recent years, Chipotle has been rattled by weaker conditions in the industry. The fast-casual segment, and the overall restaurant sector, have seen consumers pull back, particularly among households making less than $100,000 in annual income.
Furthermore, making food at home has become a more cost-conscious decision. According to U.S. Department of Agriculture data from 2025, the value proposition of buying groceries widened compared to eating out.
In 2025, Chipotle reported a rare same-store sales (SSS) decline of 1.7%. That improved to a gain of 0.5% in Q1 and 2.2% in the second quarter (ended June 30) of this year. The leadership team expects SSS to rise in the low single digits for the full year.
Profitability has come under pressure. Costs have increased due to labor and food inflation. The unit-level operating margin was 25.2% in the most recent quarter. That’s down 220 basis points from the same period last year.
