Wall Street is out with its 2025 outlook, and while strategists are broadly optimistic stocks can still go higher, they are also anticipating a turbulent market in the year ahead. The S & P 500 is expected to end next year at 6,630, according to the average forecast from the CNBC Market Strategist Survey released Friday. That level represents about a 9.6% advance from where the S & P 500 closed Thursday, in line with the historical returns of any given year for the broad market. On a median basis, the S & P 500 is expected to end 2025 at 6,600, the survey found, also a 9% gain. Here are the current 2025 targets from top strategists: Maximum target: 7,100 — John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Minimum target: 6,400 — Jonathan Golub, UBS Average target: 6,630 Median Target: 6,600 (Pro subscribers can track the strategist survey throughout the year here as the forecasters update their outlooks.) Investors fully expect the bull market to continue in 2025, but they are mindful that the rally will hardly be as rewarding in its third year after the monster gains of the first two. The S & P 500 surged 27% in 2024 after climbing 24% in 2023. “There are strong tailwinds supportive of stocks in 2025,” Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, wrote in his outlook. “But we see this as a tale of ‘two years.'” Lee, who expects the S & P 500 will close out 2025 at 6,600 after reaching 7,000 halfway through, noted stocks historically do worse in the second half of year three of a bull market. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 Still, no strategist surveyed expects the market will end next year lower than it is now, which is different from the start of this year when recession fears resulted in some very bearish forecasts. The highest target identified on the 2025 survey is from Oppenheimer’s John Stoltzfus, whose 7,100 objective implies a 17% move higher from Thursday’s close. The lowest target is from UBS’ Jonathan Golub, who expects the S & P 500 will rise to 6,400, representing about a 5% gain. Predicting where the market might land in a year’s time can be a tough task. Last year, strategists, on average, expected the S & P 500 would end 2024 at 5,705, which the index first surpassed in September. (Read here for more on how strategists did this year.) Strong economic activity There is a lot to be positive about in today’s market, according to Wall Street. A strong macroeconomic picture, as reflected in a broadening out of the market’s winners, is underpinning a robust earnings growth outlook next year that has many strategists expecting the bull run to continue. What’s more, an easing interest rate outlook and President-elect Donald Trump’s pro-business policies are thought to be additional positives for the market, especially for cyclical assets most closely tied to economic fortunes. Binky Chadha, chief U.S. equity and global strategist at Deutsche Bank Securities, said his expectation of roughly 11% earnings growth in 2025 is behind a year-end S & P 500 forecast of 7,000. He expects strong corporate activity, including a rise in buybacks and spending on mergers and acquisitions, will also bolster the stock market. “A key reason for staying constructive is, really, being constructive on the [business cycle],” Chadha told CNBC. “The broadening of the market from the market lows on Oct. 27, 2023 along with ongoing rebalancing and rotation among sectors, market capitalizations (large, mid and small stocks), style (growth and value) and cyclicals and defensives suggest to us that the current bull market likely has legs strong enough to climb the proverbial ‘wall of worry’ into and through 2025,” Oppenheimer’s Stoltzfus wrote in his outlook . The other bullish driver behind markets is spending on artificial intelligence and profits resulting from AI innovations, which can start to boost other sectors once megacap tech stocks start to “share center stage” with the broader market, Stoltzfus argued. What they’re worried about But that does not mean there aren’t some glaring challenges either, with tariffs top of mind as a No. 1 risk for many strategists, which they fear will prove inflationary. Trump has threatened tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese goods, and has vowed to impose 25% tariffs on everything imported from Mexico and Canada. That danger does not bother other strategists, who expect that Trump’s deregulatory efforts will offset any harm from tariffs. “At this point we still do not have sufficient Trump policy information to build into our fundamental framework with any confidence,” Citigroup’s Scott Chronert wrote in his outlook . “Previous work showed that tariffs are likely to create a drag to earnings. However, we need to allow for both uncertainty and opportunity. Our instinct is that policy effects will ultimately prove only marginal to consensus.” “If it’s a question of whether the tariffs and the trade war basically disrupt the business cycle, our working view is that they won’t,” Deutsche Bank’s Chadha said. One key concern for investors is how expensive the market is, which has some strategists seeking returns outside the S & P 500. Savita Subramanian, Bank of America Securities head of U.S. equity and strategy, prefers the S & P Equal Weight Index rather than the traditional S & P 500, which is ranked by each company’s market capitalization. She noted that the market cap index is expected to spit out returns in the “low single digits” over the next decade, while gains in the equal-weight index jump to 5% to 6% per year. “A lot of clients are worried about buying the S & P today, given how lofty its valuation is, and our counter argument is, well, if you look at the average S & P 500 company, it’s trading at a massive discount to the index, and actually bodes well for returns,” Subramanian told CNBC. Elsewhere, Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin expects the S & P 500 to end next year at 6,500 , as does Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson . BMO Capital’s Brian Belski sees a rise to 6,700, and UBS is forecasting 6,400 by this time next year.
Here’s where the stock market is headed in 2025, according to Wall Street’s top strategists
Dec 13, 2024
