Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) will post its third-quarter numbers after the market close on Wednesday, Oct. 21. And if the past few years are any guide, shareholders could see a big move the next day.
Since the start of 2023, the electric-car maker has put out 15 quarterly reports. Measured from the close on report day to the close a trading day later, the stock moved 8% or more after 10 of them.
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The average move, up or down, was about 9%. With shares trading around $368 as of this writing, a 9% move would be about $33 a share.
The moves have tilted one way, too. Tesla stock dropped after nine of the 15 reports, including each of the past three.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Big moves, mainly down
After an 11% pop following its January 2023 report, shares dropped between 9% and 10% after each of the next three.
Showing what Tesla’s price cuts in early 2023 did to its profitability, the company’s operating margin narrowed from 16% in the fourth quarter of 2022 to 11.4% three months later. It then kept dropping to 9.6% the next quarter and 7.6% the quarter after that. Each report showed a lower margin than the one before it. And each pushed shares down around 9% or more.
Then 2024 swung both ways: down 12% after the January report, up 12% in April, down 12% in July, and up 22% in October — the largest move of the whole stretch.
The 2025 reports were quieter with just July’s 8% fall clearing the bar. And this year, the January and April reports each brought losses of around 3.5% before July’s 14.5% drop.
What caused the big moves?
The common thread in the big moves is operating income, or the profit Tesla’s business makes before interest and taxes. All seven big declines followed a quarter in which operating income fell year over year.
That includes January 2024, when operating income sank 47% and Tesla warned that its vehicle volume growth rate in 2024 “may be notably lower” than in 2023. It also includes July 2024, when operating income fell 33%, and this July, when it fell 57%.
On the flip side, two of the three big gains followed a jump in operating income. It grew 49% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2022. Even more, in the third quarter of 2024, it rose 54% as Tesla’s operating margin widened to 10.8% from 6.3% the quarter before. That report led to the 22% gain.
