With the S&P 500 trading at a multi-year high of 29 times earnings, possible interest rate hikes on the horizon, and unresolved military conflicts driving oil prices higher, it seems like it’s only a matter of time before the market crashes. When that happens, many of the priciest growth stocks will go on sale and become compelling purchases for patient investors.
One of those stocks is AST SpaceMobile (ASTS -0.47%), a producer of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites that was overshadowed by SpaceX‘s (SPCX -0.59%) historic IPO. Let’s see why AST SpaceMobile is one of the only space stocks I’d buy in the next market crash.
Image source: Getty Images.
What sets AST SpaceMobile apart from SpaceX?
AST and SpaceX’s Starlink both produce LEO satellites for internet communications. However, AST mainly helps telecom giants like AT&T and Verizon extend their broadband networks to rural areas that their terrestrial networks can’t reach. Starlink provides its own first-party satellite internet service. AST’s satellites are also twice the size of Starlink’s largest satellites, making them the largest communication arrays ever deployed into orbit.
AST also processes its data on the ground using Radio Access Network (RAN) software, while Starlink processes it in its satellites. AST can upgrade its ground infrastructure to new wireless technologies (such as 6G), but Starlink must completely replace its satellites with each upgrade.
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AST also doesn’t operate money-losing rocket launch and artificial intelligence (AI) businesses like SpaceX. While AST isn’t profitable yet, it has a clear path to profitability because its core business operates similarly to Starlink, SpaceX’s only profitable business.
AST has launched 10 commercial BlueBird satellites to date. It aims to have 45 to 60 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026, and to expand its constellation to as many as 248 satellites within the next few years. However, that expansion will likely require more dilutive stock and debt offerings, as seen with its recent approval of a new $1 billion convertible stock offering.
Why could AST be a great long-term investment?
From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect AST’s revenue to grow from $71 million to $1.87 billion. They also expect its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to turn positive in 2027 and more than quadruple to $1.39 billion in 2028.
But with an enterprise value of $20.7 billion, AST already trades at 12 times and 16 times its projected 2028 revenue and adjusted EBITDA, respectively. If a market crash cuts those valuations in half, it’d be an incredible buying opportunity for space-oriented investors.
Leo Sun has positions in Verizon Communications. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile. The Motley Fool recommends Verizon Communications. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
