Just when investors thought they didn’t have to think about inflation anymore, it reared its ugly head again in 2026. Higher energy prices due to conflict in the Middle East continue to hurt U.S. consumers.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, rose 4.1% on an annual basis in May. This was the fastest growth rate since April 2023.
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Inflation is surging. Here’s how this trend might affect the stock market in 2026.
30,000-foot view of the macro situation
All else equal, stock market investors favor lower interest rates since that benefits riskier assets. Seeking returns that are higher than low-yielding instruments, capital will flow to opportunities with greater uncertainty. From a business perspective, a decline in the cost of capital can spur investments in labor or product development, driving economic growth.
With inflation elevated, though, the central bank will think twice about lowering rates, as it doesn’t want to provide more fuel that can propel rising prices. The Federal Reserve might be more inclined to vote on a rate cut if the job market were weak. But this doesn’t appear to be the case. In May, nonfarm payrolls soared by 172,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, well ahead of estimates, marking the third straight month of a gain of more than 170,000.
It’s becoming more likely that a rate cut is off the table in 2026. And instead, the market is starting to believe that rates could go up. The CME Group‘s FedWatch Tool, which looks at trading activity, sets a 70.1% probability that the federal funds rate will remain unchanged at the next meeting in July. At the last meeting of the year in December, however, there’s a 79.4% probability that the benchmark rate will be higher than it is right now.
Don’t dump all of your stock holdings
The prospect of higher interest rates shouldn’t result in a bearish outlook. Don’t sell all of your stocks. It’s important to maintain a long-term perspective. The focus should still be to build a diversified portfolio of high-quality stocks that can successfully navigate changing conditions.
While it’s important for investors to have a high-level understanding of the macroeconomic environment, especially as it relates to the direction of interest rates, no one has any idea what the Federal Reserve will do. Therefore, don’t spend too much time trying to predict what might happen.
