Intel (INTC) is soaring after earnings. The stock is up 26% in premarket trading, pushing above the dot-com-era ceiling it set in 2000.
The move comes amid Intel’s best month in at least 50 years. The stock had already been pressing into the same zone that capped it in 2020 and 2021, just below its 2000 peak.
On a long-term chart, that means Intel has effectively been stuck in a giant trading range since the mid-1990s. Big bases can take time to resolve. Large-cap energy (XLE) spent two decades backing and filling before finally breaking out this year.
But the move for Intel going into earnings was already enormous.
Just prior to the report, Intel was up over 60% from its March 30 low and had added nearly $130 billion in market value during its blistering run, making it one of the biggest gainers in semis over that stretch. Among megacap chip names above $100 billion in market value, only Marvell (MRVL) has done better.
That rebound is even more impressive given Intel’s January earnings reaction.
The stock sank 17% after the company forecast first quarter sales and profit below expectations, citing supply constraints that limited its ability to meet demand for data center chips. Instead, the stock came roaring back.
But the long-term chart is where the real tension sits.
Intel’s monthly relative strength indicator had climbed to 75 heading into Thursday’s report, something the stock has managed only three times since the dot-com bust. That is a sign of powerful momentum and also a sign that the stock was already extremely stretched as it pressed into its all-time high.
And Intel isn’t the only chip stock getting stretched. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (^SOX) is riding a 17-day winning streak, so a pause here — not just for Intel, but for the whole semiconductor complex — would be perfectly normal.
The key question now is whether Intel can hold its strength through Friday’s session and finally close at a record high above $75.83. Even a pullback from here could still be constructive if the stock consolidates near those highs.
But a close below $65 would flip this price action from breakout to fake-out, signaling the need for a longer reset before Intel can take another shot at the highs.
Jared Blikre is the global markets and data editor for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X at @SPYJared or email him at jaredblikre@yahooinc.com.
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