On Oct. 20, Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) reported its 2026 third-quarter earnings, posting some impressive numbers.
According to CNBC-tracked analyst estimates, revenue of $14.5 billion easily topped the $12.7 billion expected, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.45 once again beat the $0.13 expected. In addition, SpaceX reported net income of $4.4 billion, a vast improvement over the prior-year net loss of more than $1 billion.
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After that report, anyone who hasn’t invested in SpaceX yet may be wondering whether they should have bought shares earlier and if it’s too late to buy the stock. To answer that question, I’ll look at SpaceX’s trading history and what’s ahead for the company.
Get comfortable with price swings
SpaceX has only traded publicly since June, but anyone who bought shares and held since then has experienced wild price swings. Shares opened to the public on June 12 at $150 and closed on June 16 at $211.39. After that, however, the stock price was trading as low as $104.83 on Aug. 3.
It then rallied to close at $171.92 on Oct. 6, but it dropped again, closing at $147.79 on Oct. 20. After the Oct. 20 earnings report, however, it opened at $160.56 on Oct. 21.
The point in sharing all that price action is that investing in SpaceX requires a lot of conviction, paired with the ability to handle rapid, steep declines. Without either, it can be easy to have a knee-jerk reaction if the price starts dropping and end up selling for a loss.
It’s still early
Before SpaceX went public, it was viewed as a space company. That’s not how it viewed itself, however, as SpaceX listed in its S-1 filing that its total addressable market (TAM) was an ambitious $28.5 trillion, with $26.5 trillion of that coming from opportunities in artificial intelligence (AI).
Its AI division is showing promise, generating $7.6 billion in revenue, up from $813 million in the prior-year period. On top of that, $7.6 billion in AI revenue means the AI division accounted for more than half of SpaceX’s $14.5 billion in total revenue.
That said, there’s still a long way to go to capture even more of that projected $26.5 trillion TAM. SpaceX could have a first-mover advantage in establishing a new wave of AI infrastructure through space-based data centers, but scaling will take time. It filed an application to launch 1 million satellites into space to serve as data centers, but the earliest those are expected to launch is 2028.
