Trefis Team
4 min read
Mastercard (MA) stock returned 19.7% in the six months to October 19, 2026, outpacing the 8.8% return for the S&P 500. Even after that run, the shares trade at 33.4 times earnings, which sits below their average of 34.8 across the last 12 fiscal quarter ends. Buyers may be betting that the market still underpays for Mastercard’s earnings. So how much more could the shares be worth, and where would that gain come from?
All Of Mastercard’s Upside Comes From Sales Growth
Under this scenario, Mastercard stock would be worth about $897.64 a share in three years, against $616.40 today, before dividends. The table below outlines Mastercard’s figures for the twelve months to fiscal Q2 2026 alongside where they would stand three years on.
All of that gain comes from selling more. The scenario grows revenue 13.6% a year, which is 85% of the pace Mastercard delivered in the twelve months to fiscal Q2 2026. A Trefis assumption holds the P/E at today’s level, so none of the gain comes from buyers paying more for each dollar of profit. If the market is underpricing Mastercard, it is underpricing that sales growth.
Where Is Mastercard’s Revenue Growth Coming From?
So far, Mastercard is growing revenue faster than the payments it handles. Management said on the July 30, 2026 call that net revenue rose 12% on a currency-neutral basis in fiscal Q2 2026, while worldwide gross dollar volume rose 8%. Net revenue for value-added services and solutions rose 18%, against 8% for the payment network. Cross-border assessments rose 20% while cross-border volumes rose 12%. Management put that gap down mainly to pricing in international markets and mix.
On that same call, management said Mastercard chases profitable volume that lifts its net revenue yield, rather than pursuing volume for its own sake. The company expects growth in the low double digits on a currency-neutral basis for fiscal Q3 2026. That guidance covers a single quarter, and it sits below the scenario’s 13.6% yearly pace.
How Does Mastercard’s Upside Change In Different Scenarios?
Mastercard’s 16.0% revenue growth in the twelve months to fiscal Q2 2026 outpaced its 13.2% average for the two twelve-month periods before it, so the scenario uses 85% of that recent rate. The 46.3% net margin also starts above the company’s 45% average for the twelve-month periods ended June 2023 to March 2026. By moving the margin 30% of the way toward that historical average, to 46%, the scenario trims the gain slightly. The table below shows how the upside changes when one assumption moves while the other two stay as they are in the scenario.
