These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Monday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a lower open.
1. The S&P and Nasdaq both closed at record highs at the end of last week, with the latter index notching its 13th daily gain in a row to lock in its longest winning streak since 1992. But the rally looked set to fizzle out as investors fretted that the cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran could fracture, even though U.S. officials are headed to Pakistan for a second round of peace talks… Iran’s Islamic Republic News Agency disputed reports of a second round of negotiations with the U.S., saying that “the outlook for constructive talks remains bleak.” (Barron’s)
In Friday’s Weekly Roundup, we noted that “several issues between the two remain, including the subject of uranium enrichment. Based on how the market closed the trading week, it’s fair to say expectations are high, and what we learn will shape how we begin the upcoming trading week.” Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed last week in an overbought condition based on their respective relative strength index (RSI) levels.
We still have our concerns about the next legs of Q1 2026 earnings season, and the renewed uncertainty isn’t going to help quell them. Near-term, while the market slips back into moving based on the latest developments and headlines, we’ll continue to focus on the details, assessing the developing situation, and following the data. For now, we’ll continue to hold the Portfolio’s market-hedging positions, which, based on U.S. equity futures this morning, will be a nice thing to have.
2. Americans could be stuck paying more than $3 per gallon of gas until next year, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday. In an interview with CNN’s “State of the Union,” Wright said that while gas prices have spiked amid the ongoing war in Iran, he’s unsure when prices will dip below $3 again. “That could happen later this year. That might not happen until next year,” (Politico)
In recent days, we’ve seen gas prices dip, but the latest data from AAA shows a gallon of regular gas at $4.04, up from $3.91 a month ago and $3.15 this time last year. Reading between Wright’s comments, the message is that gas prices are not likely to move dramatically lower in the near-term, and renewed questions about U.S.-Iran peace talks aren’t going to help as oil prices rebound in the near-term. We see this extending a headwind for consumers’ spending, and input costs for companies that rely on petroleum in one form or another. It also adds to our thinking that, depending on the sector, corporate guidance could underwhelm market expectations.
3. President Donald Trump on Saturday signed an executive order aimed at encouraging expanded research into psychedelic drugs, part of a broader push to explore emerging mental health treatments…. The president also announced that the federal government is making a $50 million investment for further research into the psychedelic drug ibogaine. (CNN)
This is going to rekindle investor interest in the psychedelic space, but let’s remember the podcast conversations we’ve had with companies of that sort — the road to commercialization isn’t a short one. In addition to watching the outcome of various trials as part of that path, understanding the nature of a company’s molecules and how this all fits into a treatment environment are critical. Still, the weekend development will foster renewed interest and flows into ETFs like the AdvisorShares Psychedelics ETF (PSIL) or their holdings
4. Alphabet’s Google is in talks with Marvell Technology to develop two new chips aimed at running AI models more efficiently, The Information reported on Sunday citing two people with knowledge of the discussions. One of the chips is a memory processing unit designed to work with Google’s tensor processing unit (TPU), and the other chip is a new TPU built specifically for running AI models… (Reuters)
Last week, Meta (META) and Broadcom (AVGO) expanded their chip relationship, and now we have Google (GOOGL) doing the same with Marvell (MRVL) . This latest confirmation for Marvell’s custom AI chip business and AI chip demand is sending the shares higher this morning, and we’re going to see Wall Street not only revise its top and bottom-line forecasts for the company, but price targets as well. We’ll have more to say on this in a standalone note to Pro Portfolio members.
5. U.S. construction supplies distributor QXO struck a $17 billion deal on Sunday to acquire building products distributor and installer TopBuild, adding to a wave of acquisitions by the company led by billionaire dealmaker Brad Jacobs. The deal will make QXO the second-largest publicly traded building products distributor in North America, with more than $18 billion of combined company revenue… “The TopBuild transaction will also give us critical mass in the insulation sector and expand our exposure to large, complex projects like data centers, where scale matters, said Jacobs” (Reuters)
Picking up companies when a sector is down and out is a time-tested strategy to expand one’s footprint and offerings, and it’s one that QXO (QXO) has been following. The deal for TopBuild (BLD) follows QXO’s buys of Beacon Roofing Supply last year and Kodiak Building earlier in 2026. Installation Services accounts for just over 53% of TopBuild’s revenue stream, and that business is split almost evenly between residential and commercial & industrial.
The Portfolio’s Morgan Stanley (MS) acted as the lead financial advisor to QXO for this transaction.
6. Eli Lilly is in advanced talks to acquire Kelonia Therapeutics for more than $2 billion, according to people familiar with the matter… Privately held Kelonia is developing a next-generation treatment for the blood cancer multiple myeloma. Buying it would position Eli Lilly to boost its position in the lucrative blood-cancer segment of the $240 billion global cancer-drug market. (WSJ)
If the deal is executed, it will be another playbook move in the pharmaceutical space where companies like Eli Lilly (LLY) buy smaller, private companies to boost their R&D pipeline and gain access to innovative drug assets.
Taken together with QXO’s deal discussed above and USA Rare Earth (USAR) announcing it will acquire Brazilian rare earths miner Serra Verde Group for ~$2.8 billion, we have a modest Merger Monday on our hands. It continues the stream of M&A activity that bodes well for a few of the Portfolio’s financial holdings, but as we think about pending investment banking activity, all eyes will be on tomorrow’s SpaceX analyst day and what is revealed.
7. Economic data today per TipRanks: No market-moving economic data points are expected.
8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM – Bank of Hawaii (BOH) , Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) . PM – Alaska Air (ALK) , Steel Dynamics (STLD) , Wintrust (WTFC) , Zions Bancorp (ZION) .
Related: Widespread Skepticism Provides Significant Market Support
At the time of publication, the Pro Portfolio was long GOOGL, META, MRVL, and MS.
