Rich Duprey
5 min read
Quick Read
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Warsh’s first 7 trading days produced consecutive S&P 500 gains, shattering William Miller’s 1978 record of 5 straight wins.
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Jerome Powell started with zero first-week gains but delivered 12.7% average annual returns, proving early streaks don’t predict long-term performance.
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Broadcom’s guidance miss ended the streak with a 0.74% S&P 500 drop, leaving Warsh to navigate inflation above 2%, slowing growth, and elevated valuations.
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Don’t wait: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just revealed his top 10 AI stocks. See the full list FREE now.
The stock market loves a fresh narrative. Every time a new Federal Reserve chair takes office, investors immediately begin looking for clues about what comes next: lower rates, higher rates, easier money, tighter policy, or some combination of all four. The challenge is that markets rarely offer a clear verdict right away.
Yet Kevin Warsh’s first week as Fed chair delivered something investors had never seen before. The question now is whether that remarkable start tells us anything about what lies ahead — or whether history suggests investors should be looking elsewhere.
A Record-Breaking Start for a New Fed Chair
According to data compiled by Carson Research, the S&P 500 rose during each of Kevin Warsh’s first seven trading days as Federal Reserve chair. No new Fed chair had ever started with a longer winning streak.
The previous record belonged to William Miller in 1978, whose tenure began with five consecutive daily gains. Before that:
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Two Fed chairs started with three-day winning streaks in 1948 and 1979
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Two began with two-day streaks in 1930 and 1970
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Three managed only a single up day
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Most new Fed chairs saw no winning streak at all
That’s a remarkable statistical outlier. Given how closely investors scrutinize every word from a new Fed chair, markets historically have been hesitant to immediately embrace a leadership change.
Warsh’s arrival coincided with continued enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence, resilient economic growth, and expectations that interest rates may gradually move lower over time. Together, those forces helped fuel a seven-session rally that set a new record.
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24/7 Wall St.
A record-breaking 7-day winning streak just launched the Warsh era—but history warns that the biggest market gains often follow the slowest starts. © 24/7 Wall St.
Does a Strong Start Predict Strong Returns?
Here’s where things get interesting.
