Quick Read
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Bianco ranked Friday’s AI selloff 7th largest in two years, yet stocks remain up over 500% since ChatGPT’s November 2022 release.
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Bilello counted 22 drops above 1% this year against a historical average of 29, calling downside risk “the price of admission.”
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The U.S. bond market has been in drawdown for 75 months, which is the longest such stretch in history, threatening retirees who depend on bonds to offset stock losses.
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“It is not time to panic, it is time to prepare.” Thierry Borgeat, CIO at Arvy, posted that line on X on November 1, two days after AI stocks dropped sharply and dragged the broader market lower. Several widely followed market voices reacted on X over the weekend of October 31 to November 1. They split into two camps. One asks whether Friday was the start of something worse. The other sees ordinary volatility that long-term investors can ride out. For readers at or near retirement who own index funds plus a few AI names, which camp proves right affects how much risk their portfolios can carry.
Borgeat leans toward opportunity. “Volatility is finally rising, tech stocks are being sold off, deleveraging is taking place,” he wrote, adding “We are now in the midst of great opportunities.” His view carries a longer-term caution. He argued that “Every 50 to 60 years, US stocks top out and lose 5 to 13 years after inflation. The clock says 2028.”
How Big Friday’s AI Drop Really Was
Jim Bianco of Bianco Research put the drop in historical context: “Where AI stands after Friday. The 7th-largest sell-off in the last two years, after rallying over 500% since ChatGPT’s November 2022 release. Also note, the all-time high was October 6, less than a month ago.”
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Bianco’s ranking of seventh largest over a two-year window means Friday was painful but has company: AI stocks have taken several bigger hits in that period. The rally of over 500% Bianco cited also shows how much gain these holdings have produced, and how much there is left to give back.