These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Tuesday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a positive market open.
1. Iran’s ability to choke off oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz—and use that as leverage in talks with the U.S.—is breaking down, raising the risk it will resort to military escalation to bolster its position. The erosion of Iran’s position comes as the U.S. Navy and Gulf oil producers have become better at fending off or evading Iranian attacks, allowing more tankers to cross the strait. Middle Eastern crude exports rebounded this month to around their highest level since the war began in February, oil data trackers say. Shipments via Hormuz and bypass routes were delivering just under 80% of their prewar regional flows as of last week, according to tracker Kpler. (WSJ)
The U.S. and Iran are reportedly talking separately to mediators as part of renewed efforts to end the conflict. The corresponding move lower in oil prices is helping lift U.S. equity futures. As those talks continue, we will continue to monitor traffic through the Strait and the impact on oil prices and other sources of inflation pressures. With inflation in mind, we have at least four Fed speakers making the rounds today ahead of the August PCE Price Index data that will be published tomorrow and ISM’s Manufacturing PMI report on Thursday.
2. US-Canada trade relations took another step backward overnight as President Donald Trump’s ban on about $1 billion worth of Canadian imports took effect. Washington’s latest restrictions on the country’s No. 2 US trading partner are even blunter than high tariffs — they simply block shipments of motorcycles, alcoholic beverages and whey products from Canada… Trump said on Monday he expects Canadian officials to cut their tariffs on US goods and apologize within the next three to four weeks. (Bloomberg)
While the above isn’t a tremendous blow to the U.S.-Canada trade relationship, which totals round $900 billion in bilateral commerce, the impact is likely to be a bit bigger than first thought. The reason for that is it’s not just Canadian producers that need to be aware of these new curbs. U.S. firms that make goods north of the border are also subject to the ban as the focus is on where goods are produced, not where the company behind the products is based. TBD on the Trump timeline mentioned above, but there is the potential for at least some impact when affected companies issue or update their Q4 2026 guidance.
3. Earlier this month we introduced Muse, a personal AI agent available in the US and Canada that completes tasks on your behalf. Today, we’re expanding it with a collection of new skills and connectors inside Muse to help people run their businesses… Muse can connect your Instagram professional account analytics, Facebook Pages, and Meta ad accounts in a few clicks, and it already understands your business: what you sell, what your brand sounds like, and what customers keep asking you about. Muse can also connect to dozens of tools that businesses already run on, so it can work with your brand, storefront, books, and customer records. (Meta) The agent is able to access analytics tied to business and creator accounts on Facebook and Instagram, as well as advertising accounts. That level of access allows Muse to provide insights and carry out tasks related to businesses’ social media presence, like ad campaigns. But Meta, which has already launched other agent tools for businesses that primarily exist on its apps, has more ambitious plans for Muse Small Business. The company has added support for a bunch of new third-party services, including Asana, Box, Canva, Dropbox, Figma, Granola, HighLevel, Intuit QuickBooks, Klaviyo, Lovable, Notion, Shopify, Slack, Stripe and Zoom. If business owners choose to connect these accounts to Muse, Meta says, the agent can tackle much bigger goals and incorporate data from those apps. (Engadget)
Similar to our comment last year about why it was a mistake to underestimate Google (GOOGL) in the AI race given its Search, YouTube and shopping positions, it would be a mistake to underestimate Meta (META) and Muse with small business. With estimates that small advertisers account for up to 38% of Meta’s total social media advertising and others that find ~200 million businesses use its apps monthly, Meta is well positioned to drive Muse adoption across the small business market. However, with cybersecurity and privacy concerns that have been raised about Muse, we will be tracking adoption rates closely.
4. Anthropic is making a massive bet that AI will transform the global economy more profoundly than industrialization, electricity and the internet, according to its IPO prospectus seen by Reuters. But the cost to get there will be staggering. Anthropic reported a net loss of $42 billion in 2025, and plans to spend $518 billion on cloud, computing and infrastructure obligations in coming years, according to the prospectus… The AI lab spent $7.33 billion on compute and infrastructure last year, a threefold surge from 2024, accounting for more than half of its $12.65 billion in total operating expenses. (Reuters) Anthropic said it expects to spend at least $518 billion over a decade building AI infrastructure with six partners, according to a confidential IPO prospectus seen by Reuters — a plan that ranks among the largest AI buildout commitments on record. The AI lab said in the prospectus that about 80% of that sum is non-cancelable or requires payment regardless of usage. Anthropic is telling investors the commitments are necessary because access to computing power is becoming the key constraint on AI development, as future demand for advanced AI systems is likely to exceed available supply and will be “limited principally by the availability of compute.” (Reuters)
Anthropic’s S-1 filing has yet to land at the SEC website, and that means we and other market watchers are reacting to reports like the one above. With the latest thinking that Anthropic will push out its expected IPO to after the midterm elections, the company’s public S-1 will likely contain Q3 2026 figures and data. If not, it will be discussed during the ensuing roadshow, and odds are those figures will be favorable. And let’s remember prior reports that Anthropic was profitable in Q2 2026 on an adjusted basis. How the corresponding figures for the current quarter, 2026 and 2027 stack up will be a key consideration in valuing the shares.
Other factors will include the capex spend and sources, and customer concentration. Nearly a quarter of Anthropic’s revenue came from two customers last year, and as part of its risk factors, the company warned that many of its largest clients were not locked into long-term contracts and could cut or stop spending. Again, that two-customer reference is for 2025, and we’ll want to see how that has changed so far this year.
And as we wait for that S-1, today we have OpenAI’s DevDay and no doubt that will bring new products and features as it looks to garner attention from Meta and Muse. Given our comments above about Meta and Muse, we’ll be looking to see how OpenAI aims to drive enterprise productivity and address privacy concerns.
5. Health and fitness ring-maker Oura Inc. became the latest company to delay a US initial public offering due to uncertainty in the market for first time offerings… Oura is the highest profile firm to date to delay its offering in the US, a trend that has sent caution through a market waiting for Anthropic PBC’s debut to materialize. Nuclear power services firm Holtec Nuclear Corp. and CVC Capital Partners-backed Bamboo Insurance Services Inc. both postponed their IPOs in recent days, citing market conditions. (Bloomberg)
The growing number of delayed IPOs has weighed on the shares of investment banks such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), and our own Morgan Stanley (MS). While that slower than previously expected base of very profitable revenue will likely weigh on Q3 2026 EPS expectations, other revenue streams from M&A activity, debt offerings, and trading volumes should soften that downside potential. With MS shares in an oversold condition, we’ll be all ears about those other revenue drivers when Citigroup (C), Goldman, and JPMorgan report Q3 2026 results on October 13. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America (BAC) report on October 14.
6. After it was reported that the Federal Aviation Administration will delay certification of Boeing’s 737 MAX 10 variant due to the software issues that surfaced recently, BofA says the financial impact is “manageable” for Boeing, but adds that the reputational damage brought about by the 737 MAX crisis “represents an enduring uphill battle even for issues of a much smaller magnitude.” The firm, which expects possible impacts to its 2026 and 2027 free cash flow estimates at this point from the incident, adds that “questions of trust and disclosure become paramount in a situation like this.” The firm has a Buy rating and $270 price target on Boeing shares. (TheFly)
We concur with the comments from BofA regarding Boeing (BA) and cash flow expectations. For us, it comes down to delivery expectations and this latest 737 MAX 10 blow means the delivery window that was expected to open in Q4 2026 could be pushed out.
The larger question for us is how this will impact 2027 delivery and cash flow expectations, and forecasts for Boeing to return to positive EPS territory. Speaking at a conference today, Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary commented that he hopes the announced delay in certification of Boeing MAX 10 planes would be “a matter of days, not weeks or months.” The airline expected to receive the first 15 MAX 10 aircraft in the coming spring.
At that same conference, O’Leary said that demand for air travel remained very strong because airlines had kept fares low, but warned that this could not continue with oil prices at current levels.
7. Economic data today per TipRanks: S&P Case Schiller home Price Index (July), JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (August), Consumer Confidence (September), Dallas Fed Services Index (September).
8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM – CarMax (KMX), Carnival (CCL). PM – Concentrix (CNXC).
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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long BA, BAC, GOOGL, META, and MS.
