Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) traded at around $196 on October 7, up 4.81% on the day and 571.42% higher over twelve months. Nasdaq said the company will rejoin the Nasdaq-100 before the open on October 9, replacing Warner Bros. Discovery.
Moderna left that index in December 2024, and what has changed since is the market value rather than the business.
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Index Membership Is a Market Value Test:
The Nasdaq-100 selects the largest non financial companies on the exchange by market capitalisation. It does not ask whether a company earns money, and that distinction is the whole story here.
Moderna was removed in the December 2024 reconstitution after the post-pandemic decline took the market value below the threshold. The shares have since risen 571.42% over twelve months, from a 52-week low of $22.28 to around $196. That recovery took the market value to $78.44 billion, which is what qualified the company again.
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The Business Did Not Recover With the Stock:
One figure makes the gap between the share price and the accounts unmistakable. Gross margin is negative 66.02%. A negative gross margin means the cost of producing the product exceeds what the product sells for, before any other expense.
Revenue grew 2.10% in the most recent quarter, so the top line has essentially stopped moving. Operating margin is negative 557.93% and net margin is negative 141.43%, and free cash flow was negative $1.24 billion.
Return on equity is negative 39.00%, which is what a loss of $8.36 a share does to a $16.95 book value. The balance sheet is what buys time. Cash of $5.14 billion against $1.29 billion of debt funds roughly four more years at that rate. In May, we ranked this year’s best dividend performers. The one that finished first has since fallen 38%.
The Valuation Case:
Moderna traded at around $196 on October 7 and is worth $78.44 billion. Sustainability depends on the pipeline rather than on current products, because the current products do not cover their own cost of goods. There is no trailing earnings multiple, and the forward figure is negative because a loss is expected next year.
On sales, the stock trades at 35.21 times, against a price-to-book of 11.60 on book value of $16.95 a share. Short interest of 10.06% of the float shows a tenth of the available stock positioned against the recovery.
