Stocks still have a ton of gains to show for in 2026.
Through Sept. 10, the S&P 500 was up around 11%, the Nasdaq Composite 12.2%, and the Dow 8.3%, according to The Washington Post. But Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson sees a reason for investors to look at their next steps a lot more carefully.
Clearly, the ride has become bumpier. The S&P 500 just logged its fourth straight decline. At the same time, Wall Street’s fear gauge, the VIX, jumped to its highest level since early August.
Similarly, rising oil prices and bond yields continue adding to the pressure, creating a testing backdrop for stocks even when companies deliver strong earnings.
That said, speaking with Bloomberg Television, Wilson said a potential stock market correction might arrive soon but remains bullish overall. That puts investors with a more complicated decision than whether to buy or sell, and his advice on handling the turbulence comes with a twist.
Mike Wilson flags a 30-day correction risk
Wilson is questioning if markets have enough available money to absorb multiple haymakers at once.
Corporate earnings are still stronger than he expected. But healthy bottom-line numbers cannot fully protect stocks if elevated energy costs and a busy calendar of corporate fundraising stretch investors’ capacity to continue loading up on them.
“I do think in the next 30 days, if oil goes to $120, $130, $140, that’s a drain on liquidity,” he said in his talk on Bloomberg Television.
For perspective, the U.S. benchmark WTI crude had skyrocketed nearly 78.5% this year through September 10, reaching $102.48 a barrel, up from $57.42 at the end of 2025, as reported by Reuters.
Those prices underscore a risk scenario, instead of just an oil forecast. The concern is that a further energy surge might absorb cash just as businesses seek more funding.
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Wilson described market liquidity as “ample” rather than “abundant,” which means that there might be a lot less room to absorb the unexpected shocks.
Throw in heavy issuance and investors becoming reluctant buyers, and “that’s another reason why we could have a correction in the next 30 days.”
Yet Wilson sees earnings offering a relatively strong underlying cushion. He feels that market valuations have adjusted downward this year, with profit growth backing the index despite that pressure.
According to FactSet’s Sept. 3 update, 84% of S&P 500 companies sped past Q2 earnings estimates, comfortably above the five-year average of 78%, while revenue grew 12.7% year over year.
