Nomura Holdings, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

It’s been a good week for Nomura Holdings, Inc. (TSE:8604) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest half-year results, and the shares gained 5.2% to JP¥1,496. Revenues JP¥607b disappointed slightly, at7.7% below what the analysts had predicted. Profits were a relative bright spot, with statutory per-share earnings of JP¥35.49 coming in 15% above what was anticipated. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there’s been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we’ve aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Nomura Holdings after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Nomura Holdings’ six analysts is for revenues of JP¥2.47t in 2027. This reflects a credible 2.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to step up 16% to JP¥164. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥2.47t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥160 in 2027. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for Nomura Holdings

There’s been no major changes to the consensus price target of JP¥1,764, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock’s valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company’s valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Nomura Holdings at JP¥2,200 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,600. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don’t appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It’s pretty clear that there is an expectation that Nomura Holdings’ revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2027 expected to display 4.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past five years. Compare this to the 55 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.7% per year. So it’s pretty clear that, while Nomura Holdings’ revenue growth is expected to slow, it’s expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Nomura Holdings following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,764, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Nomura Holdings going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don’t forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we’ve identified 1 warning sign for Nomura Holdings that you should be aware of.

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