A stock market in search of direction could very well get one next week. Investors are about to react to two potentially major market-moving events in the week ahead. Nvidia is set to come out with its first earnings report since China’s DeepSeek in January rattled the outlook for artificial intelligence companies. And last month’s personal consumption expenditure price data — the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation — will help decide the short-term path of monetary policy. The two combined could shake up a market in need of direction. Despite the volatility to start 2025 caused by a barrage of developments around trade and other federal policies, the S & P 500 at roughly 6,035 midday Friday hasn’t moved all that much from where it was at the start of December (6,032) , or so far below its January closing high (6,119). The market reached all-time highs Tuesday and Wednesday this week only to give it all back. But the underlying resiliency has many investors confident stocks can climb a wall of worry this year and reach fresh heights. Others are concerned that a market priced for perfection has overlooked some glaring warning signs and is overdue for a pullback. “It feels as if we’re waiting for something to crack the market, instead of something to make the market go much higher,” said Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Market. “We’re doing neither right now,” Woods continued. “And the catalysts to have a little bit of a sell off, a 5% to 10% correction, seem to be more prevalent than any catalyst to move this market higher, and get people a little more euphoric.” .SPX 6M mountain S & P 500, over six months Indeed, there was no euphoria on Friday. The stock market was headed for a mixed week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite down, and the S & P 500 eking out a small gain. Nvidia, and the old guard Investors are counting on Nvidia next week to revive an AI trade that isn’t what it was in 2023 and 2024, when it single-handedly carried the market on its shoulders. Nvidia shares are up just 4% so far this year after soaring more than 170% in 2024 and 200% in 2023 — accounting for much of the S & P 500’s bull run those two years. Other Magnificent Seven stocks aren’t what they used to be either. Where once the megacap hyperscalers rose en masse, now they’ve fallen into two camps. Tesla is down big this year, off by roughly 13%, while Apple , Alphabet and Microsoft are also lower. Meta Platforms is the only real winner, up about 20%, while Amazon has managed to a small gain. Instead, investors have relied on a new set of market leaders this year, such as energy, healthcare and financial stocks, while consumer discretionary companies are notably the worst performing sector. In fact, whenever the S & P 500 has touched a new high in 2025, it’s done so without any major help from the Mag 7 companies. On Friday, Barclays’ Venu Krishna wondered whether financials, not technology, are now the “primary driver” of forward earnings estimates. As a result, many investors are awaiting signs of life in technology stocks, given their dominant weighting in the S & P 500, their hold on srntiment and their power to decisively move the market in one direction or another. As Adam Kobeissi, editor in chief of The Kobeissi Letter, put it: “You’re not going to see a huge run in any market indice at this point, without tech.” “We just need to see some of these tech names to catch their footing again, because they’ve been lagging,” Woods said. “And to me, that’s why Nvidia is so important. Because if it can break out to new highs — get to 150, it’s at 137, 138 right now — to me, that could lead another leg higher.” “If we see weakness there, if we hear any concerns on the call like we heard in Walmart [on Thursday], then this market could struggle to take another leg higher over the next quarter,” Woods added. Even if Nvidia beats expectations for the quarter, traders are going to need reassurance from CEO Jensen Huang that the chipmaker can indeed navigate the concerns raised by DeepSeek earlier this year, as well as any tariff uncertainty. On Thursday, Deutsche Bank was the rare investment bank to stay on the sidelines on Nvidia, reiterating a hold rating on the stock, and sticking to $140 price target that’s near the stock’s current price. On average, Wall Street analysts expect the stock could climb to $172 over the coming year, more than 20% above where Nvidia closed Thursday. PCE Investors will also check whether markets ignore another warm inflation report if the January personal consumption expenditure index surprises to the upside, as did the January consumer price index and producer price index earlier this month. The stakes are higher now. The PCE data next week will be the last time the Federal Reserve gets to look at its preferred inflation gauge before its March 18-19 meeting, and could help decide what markets price in for interest rates. Those have been volatile as of late, with odds of one or two quarter-point cuts coming this year evenly split, according to CME Group FedWatch data . Economists expect that inflation eased last month. The PCE price index is expected to have risen 2.5% in January on a year-over-year basis, down from 2.6%, according to FactSet. Core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is set to have fallen to 2.6% on a yearly basis, from 2.8% previously. An in-line number could help send the market ripping higher, while a hotter number should theoretically cause the market to sell off — especially with concern rising over the potential inflationary impact of higher tariffs. In any case, what investors may pay attention to most next week is the market reaction itself. On Thursday, BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky said he will keep watch for a “false breakout” above 6,100 in the S & P 500, a move that could raise the risk of a deeper pullback in March. On Friday, the broader index wasn’t in danger of breaching that level. “If we get some negativity out of Nvidia, and a PCE that comes in hot, then we may sell off a little bit,” Woods said. “A sell off could be in order as we end earnings season, and we focus on economic data and the Fed going into March.” Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday, Feb. 24 8:30 a.m. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (January) 10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed Index (February) Earnings: Public Storage , Diamondback Energy , Domino’s Pizza Tuesday, Feb. 25 9 a.m. FHFA Home Price Index (December) 9 a.m. S & P/Case-Shiller comp.20 HPI M/M (December) 10 a.m. Consumer Confidence (February) 10 a.m. Richmond Fed Index (February) Earnings: Extra Space Storage , Workday , Axon Enterprise , First Solar , Caesars Entertainment , Public Service Enterprise Group , Keurig Dr Pepper , Home Depot Wednesday, Feb. 26 8 a.m. Building Permits final (January) 10 a.m. New Home Sales (January) Earnings: Nvidia , Ebay , Salesforce , Universal Health Services , Paramount Global , Invitation Homes , TJX Companies , Lowe’s Companies Thursday, Feb. 27 8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (02/15) 8:30 a.m. Durable Orders preliminary (January) 8:30 a.m. GDP second preliminary (Q4) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (02/22) 10 a.m. Pending Home Sales Index (January) 10 a.m. Pending Home Sales (January) 11 a.m. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (February) Earnings: HP , Dell Technologies , NetApp , Autodesk , Warner Bros. Discovery , J. M. Smucker Co., Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings , Hormel Foods Friday, Feb. 28 8:30 a.m. Core PCE Deflator (January) 8:30 a.m. Personal Consumption Expenditure (January) 8:30 a.m. Personal Income (January) 8:30 a.m. Wholesale Inventories preliminary (January) 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI (February)
Nvidia and PCE will have to deliver next week for a stock market in search of direction
Feb 21, 2025
