Olin (OLN) just put fresh numbers on the table, with third quarter results and year to date figures that showed steady sales but sharply weaker profitability, giving investors new data to reassess the stock.
Recent trading shows that Olin’s momentum has been choppy, with the share price falling 4.15% on the day and 6.89% over 90 days, despite a stronger 30-day share price return of 8.73% and a much weaker 5-year total shareholder return that declined 70.06%.
Spot 39 high quality undervalued stocks that, like Olin after this earnings reset and credit agreement update, are priced for pressure yet still backed by meaningful revenue and established operations.
After a 70% five year total return decline, renewed earnings pressure, and a reset credit profile, Olin now presents a simple puzzle: Do these risks still outweigh what buyers are paying for the business today?
Most Popular Narrative: 13% Undervalued
Olin’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at $19.81 per share using a 10.68% discount rate, compared with the latest close at $17.31. This frames the stock as trading at a double digit discount to that scenario while the business works through weak profitability and heavy restructuring.
The planned merger with Huntsman and formation of OlinHuntsman, with identified cost and integration synergies of more than US$400 million and pro forma 2025 revenue of about US$12.5b, is expected to create a more vertically integrated portfolio that can lift combined EBITDA and improve overall net margins.
See why 16 investors see Olin as 13% undervalued.
Result: Fair Value of $19.81 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, if chlor alkali pricing stays weak or merger synergies arrive late, the bullish Olin narrative, which is built on cost cuts and integration, could fray quickly.
Find out about the key risks to this Olin narrative.
Another View: Olin Through The DCF Lens
The analyst narrative around Olin leans on a fair value of $19.81 per share and calls the stock undervalued. A different lens tells a tougher story. The SWS DCF model points to future cash flows worth about $10.24 per share, which puts Olin trading above that estimate and screens as overvalued on this metric. So which signal should carry more weight for you?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Olin for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 39 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.
