David Moadel
5 min read
Quick Read
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OPEN has crashed 64% YTD, missing earnings estimates for seven straight quarters while burning $110M each quarter on stock-based compensation.
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Zillow (ZG) is down 52% YTD while Compass (COMP) fell just 11%, proving Opendoor’s inventory-heavy model is the bigger drag on its stock.
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CEO Kaz Nejatian targets positive adjusted net income by year-end, with $896M cash against a $2B market cap providing a potential floor.
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Few corners of the housing market have absorbed more punishment this year than iBuying. Shares of Opendoor Technologies (NASDAQ:OPEN) are up 2% in afternoon trading to $2.09, leaving the stock down 64% year to date (YTD).
Over the same stretch, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up 13% YTD to $769.91. Opendoor stock has trailed that benchmark. The wide margin puts the company’s balance-sheet-heavy model under a harsh spotlight.
A modest gain leaves the larger debate unresolved: is Opendoor stock dead money, or is it due for a bounce? Mortgage rates, housing turnover and the company’s path to smaller losses could decide the answer.
Balance-Sheet Homes Magnify the Rate Pain
Benchmark borrowing costs haven’t offered Opendoor much relief. The 10-year Treasury yield, which guides mortgage rates, stood at 5.09% on October 16. That is a soft reading. Existing home sales ran at a 3.99 million annualized pace in September, for a company like Opendoor that depends on resale volume.
Pressure from that environment showed up in Opendoor’s Q2 2026 report, where revenue fell 43.6% year over year (YoY) to $883 million. Its GAAP net loss grew to $162 million, swollen by heavy stock-based compensation. Opendoor’s acquisition volume is rebuilding. Even as the bottom line falls behind, the company is buying far more homes than a year earlier.
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Listings and Brokerage Peers Held Up Better
Housing stocks with lighter business models have fallen less that OPEN stock in 2026 so far. Zillow Group (NASDAQ:ZG) runs a real estate listings and advertising platform; ZG shares are down 52% this year. Moreover, Compass (NYSE:COMP) operates a residential brokerage; COMP shares have fallen only 10% year-to-date. Neither carries Opendoor’s inventory risk.
