Alex Sirois
5 min read
Quick Read
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PLTR’s EPS surged 156% YoY to $0.41 while U.S. commercial revenue jumped 149%, yet the stock sits down 3% YTD.
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At 148x trailing earnings, any slip in U.S. commercial growth below 100% or a government contract termination would collapse the premium valuation.
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FY2027 EPS consensus hit $2.33 after 26 straight upward revisions, meaning the forward multiple compresses naturally if growth holds.
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Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) at $172.56 looks attractive, and the reason has become almost embarrassingly simple. Earnings are compounding faster than the multiple can stay stretched, yet the stock has quietly gone nowhere this year.
Palantir sells enterprise AI software through Gotham, Foundry, and AIP, converting pilots into multi-year, eight and nine figure contracts, especially inside U.S. commercial accounts. Shares hit a 52-week high of $207.52 earlier in the year before settling into a range with a 50-day moving average of $154.81, giving investors a rare pause in a chart that has otherwise gone straight up.
Growth Faster Than the Multiple Can Stay Stretched
Q2 2026 reset the narrative. Revenue grew 92.8% year-over-year to $1.935 billion, U.S. commercial jumped 149%, and the Rule of 40 score hit 155. GAAP net income reached $1.06 billion, up 225% YoY, on a 63% adjusted free cash flow margin.
Management raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $8.15 to $8.158 billion (82% YoY growth) and adjusted free cash flow guidance to $4.5 to $4.7 billion. Analyst estimates are chasing: FY2027 EPS consensus climbed from $2.07 ninety days ago to $2.33, with 26 upward revisions and zero cuts in the past 30 days.
A Valuation That Leaves No Room for Error
PLTR trades at roughly 148x trailing earnings, 75x forward earnings, and 68x sales. Even for a hyper-grower, extreme numbers.
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