Trey Thoelcke
4 min read
Quick Read
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Polymarket traders predicted Nvidia would close October near $224, but shares finished at $205, a 10% miss in an otherwise 79% accurate record.
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With shares at $208, Polymarket gives Nvidia a 70% chance of hitting $216 and just 18% odds of reclaiming $240 in November.
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Nvidia’s November 17 earnings loom large, with memory cost pressures and excluded China data center revenue flagged as key downside risks.
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Polymarket traders expected Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) to end October near $223.81. The stock instead closed October 30 at $204.64, a 10.4% decline from its September 30 close of $228.38, after reaching $240 during the month. The contract for an October close above $210 averaged 0.767 before resolving No. Across 467 resolved Nvidia markets, the crowd’s favored outcome was correct 78.8% of the time, making October a notable miss in an otherwise accurate record.
How Polymarket Is Pricing November
Each contract trades between zero and one, and its price is the crowd’s implied probability. These odds are a snapshot from midday Monday, November 2, and they move quickly. Shares trade at $207.66, with 28 days left in November.
A “hit” market resolves Yes if the stock reaches a price at any point in the month. A “close above” market depends on where it ends. In the November hit market, which has traded $10,100.70, $216 trades at 0.70, $224 at 0.48, and $240 at 0.18. On the downside, $184 trades at 0.315 and $160 at 0.07. The end-of-November close market prices $200 at 0.64 and $220 at 0.32, but it has traded only $102.50, so it is thin.
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Fundamentals Backing the Upside Strikes
Second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue reached $96.22 billion, up 105.85% year over year. Non-GAAP EPS of $2.22 beat the $2.09 consensus. Cash stood at $22.44 billion against debt-to-equity of 0.073.
