Prosper Junior Bakiny, The Motley Fool
5 min read
Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX) has had an eventful first four months on the stock market. But the company hasn’t made much money for investors who have held on since its debut. As of writing, SpaceX’s shares are trading at $134 each, below the company’s IPO price of $135. Still, SpaceX boasts attractive opportunities. How will the company perform over the next year? Let’s try to determine what its share price might be by the end of 2027.
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Revenue and profit drivers
SpaceX’s financial results have been strong this year. In the third quarter, the company’s revenue grew by 161% year over year to $14.6 billion. It also posted a net income of $4.4 billion — or $0.35 per diluted share — substantially better than the prior-year quarter’s net loss of $1.1 billion (or $0.36 per share).
SpaceX’s annual revenue run rate is now at $58.4 billion. Analysts expect the company’s total revenue for the current fiscal year to be $48.93 billion (according to Yahoo! Finance), and its earnings per share (EPS) to be $0.22, as of this writing. What about next year? Analysts are projecting $180.37 billion in revenue and $4.03 in EPS, on average.
Note that at current levels, SpaceX is trading at about 33.3x projected 2027 earnings, which seems reasonable for a company growing as fast as it is. But there is a complication. These projections may already be baked into the share price. After all, despite excellent financial results for as long as it has been public, SpaceX stock has gone nowhere.
The question, then, is whether SpaceX will perform roughly in line with, above, or below expectations over the next 12 months. Let’s consider the bullish case first. SpaceX’s artificial intelligence segment, dubbed Super Intelligence (SI), is booming. The company has more demand for AI compute capacity than it is willing to rent out. Third-quarter SI revenue soared 830% year over year to $7.6 billion. Perhaps the market is underestimating the company’s potential in this industry.
The SI segment could maintain outstanding growth provided SpaceX adds more compute deals to its portfolio. Connectivity is also performing. SpaceX’s push into additional regions within this market could deliver significant subscription growth. Then there is SpaceX’s space segment.
