Alex Sirois
6 min read
Quick Read
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SanDisk surged 632% year-to-date to $1,738, rating it a Hold as momentum outpaces the margin of safety for new buyers.
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Two-thirds of Q4’s 372% revenue growth came from pricing, not volume. This is a NAND commodity dynamic that historically invites supply and reverses.
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A $93.9 billion minimum revenue commitment backlog and $14 billion buyback authorization give existing holders real fundamental support.
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SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) at $1,737.99 is a Hold. The stock has become one of the most spectacular momentum trades of the cycle, and the question every investor is asking is whether chasing it here still makes sense.
SanDisk emerged as a standalone public company after separating from Western Digital in February 2025, inheriting a NAND flash franchise, a manufacturing joint venture with Kioxia, and a cyclical business that had just posted brutal losses. What has followed is a violent turn in the NAND cycle, layered on top of AI-driven storage demand that management now believes will keep bits on allocation beyond calendar year 2027.
The result is a share price that has gone from roughly $223 in November 2025 to nearly $1,738 in ten months, and a market capitalization that now sits around $254.5 billion.
Why the AI Storage Bull Case Still Has Legs
The bull case is that this is not a normal NAND upcycle. SanDisk exited fiscal 2026 with $20.248 billion in revenue, up 175.3% year over year, and Datacenter revenue up 437%. Q4 non-GAAP EPS came in at $39.25 against a $33.28 consensus, the fifth straight beat.
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Management now has eight New Business Model customers with weighted average duration over four years, minimum revenue commitments at floor pricing of $93.9 billion, and a stated view that NBMs will cover two-thirds of bits in fiscal 2028. At a P/E of 22 against forward EPS estimates of $214.10 for fiscal 2027, the stock is not obviously expensive on numbers management is already sketching.
