Should Tyson Foods Stock Holders Look At JM Smucker Instead?

Tyson Foods (TSN) and JM Smucker (SJM) both sell grocery brands that shoppers buy every week, from Hillshire Farm and Jimmy Dean to Uncrustables and Milk-Bone. Beyond those familiar labels, the two companies part ways. Tyson runs chicken, beef and pork businesses, while Smucker sells coffee and peanut butter. Over the past year, investors have favored Smucker, whose stock returned 28.0% against 6.2% for Tyson. So is Smucker’s outlook improving while Tyson’s slips?

Smucker Raised Its Outlook As Tyson Lowered Its Own

The current evidence points to yes. Smucker raised its fiscal 2027 forecast for adjusted earnings per share on August 26. The new guidance sits at $10.75 at the midpoint, up from $10.00 in June, and the company raised its free cash flow forecast at the same time. Management noted that the fiscal first quarter for Smucker included an $0.84 benefit from tariff refunds. The company is putting part of that cash back into spending, mostly administrative costs. The full-year benefit is expected to be about $0.60 after costs, which accounts for most of the $0.75 rise in the earnings forecast.

Tyson moved in the opposite direction in its August 3 report. The company now expects its beef business to lose $575 million in fiscal 2026 at the midpoint of its forecast. That compares to a projected $425 million loss in its May forecast, and management tied the lower profit outlook to cattle availability. In September, Tyson also cut its revenue forecast, citing cattle pressure, the WSJ reported.

Tyson did raise its forecast for Prepared Foods, the branded business behind Hillshire Farm. The negative news for Tyson comes from one segment, beef, while the positive outlook at Smucker covers the whole company.

Does Smucker Produce Enough Cash For Heavier Debt?

So far, the cash flow supports the balance sheet. Smucker carries debt equal to 51.3% of its market value, against 41.9% for Tyson. Yet Smucker generated $1.59 billion of free cash flow over the twelve months to July 31, stacked against $6.9 billion of debt. Tyson produced $1.16 billion over its twelve months to June 27 from far larger sales, set against $8.01 billion of debt.

Management said Smucker reached its target leverage ratio of 3 times in the fiscal first quarter, a metric measuring debt against earnings. This milestone arrived a little ahead of expectations. Looking forward, Smucker plans to pay down about $500 million of debt in fiscal 2027. At the same time, the company is spending to start up capacity earlier at its McCalla, Alabama, facility.