Deepti Sri
5 min read
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The firm expects terrestrial computing capacity to reach 13 gigawatts in 2027 and 20 gigawatts in 2028.
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SpaceX expects fourth-quarter capex of $35 billion to $40 billion and reports compute payback periods under a year.
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Bernstein’s model assumes neither a Tesla merger nor a telecom-tower deal.
Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) have gained nearly 10% from their IPO offer price, but Bernstein SocGen Group sees room for a much bigger rally — even without assuming a Tesla merger or SpaceX reaching its full revenue ambitions.
SPCX shares slipped about 0.4% on Monday, leaving them 9% above their $135 IPO offer price.
Bernstein Raises Stakes On SpaceX
The research firm raised its price target to $268 from $248, implying an 82% upside from current levels, and maintained an ‘Outperform’ rating. “We raise our SpaceX outlook primarily on terrestrial AI build plans. We believe the case for a multi-trillion dollar valuation rests on success of orbital data centers,” the firm said.
Bernstein said computing infrastructure on Earth adds materially to SpaceX’s revenue outlook, while its enterprise and government connectivity business also appears to be outperforming.
The firm now forecasts $424 billion in full-year 2028 revenue. That remains below SpaceX’s ambition to reach an annualized revenue pace of $500 billion to $1 trillion by the end of 2027, although Bernstein raised its estimate.
The company’s goal refers to its revenue pace exiting 2027, rather than total sales during that year. “And, as we have said, you do not need to go all the way to the company’s plan to make SpaceX attractive,” the firm said.
Bernstein also noted that SpaceX is planning its first orbital data-center launches in late 2027, with operations beginning in mid-2028. Flight 15 is expected within weeks, with SpaceX planning to catch both the booster and the ship. Bernstein said the heat shield’s performance on Flight 14 could set up the first Starship reuse on Flight 16. “Reusability is key to making orbital data centers successful,” the firm said.
Bigger Capacity Plans Leave Room For More SPCX Upside
Bernstein sees SpaceX’s terrestrial computing capacity reaching 13 gigawatts by the end of 2027 — five gigawatts above its previous forecast — before climbing to 20 gigawatts in 2028.
This would mark a sharp jump from the 1.7 gigawatts SpaceX reported at the end of September. On the recent earnings call, Musk said he was confident the company could add 10 gigawatts in 2027, on top of the 2.5 gigawatts to 3 gigawatts expected online by the end of this year.
