Stock Market Live Today: Where are Sensex, Nifty50 headed this week? Analysts cautious amid US-Iran deadlock

“The big uncertainty surrounding the West Asia conflict and the consequent gyrations in crude prices had its impact on FPI flows also. FPIs turned buyers on three days in the third week of April on strengthening of the rupee and news of decline in crude prices. But soon this trend was reversed in the fourth week when FPIs turned sellers again.

Total FPI selling through 24th April through the cash market stood at Rs 46298 crores. FPIs invested Rs 3391 crores through the primary market during this period. The total FPI selling for 2026, so far, stands at Rs 187439 crores.

An important trend in FPI activity is that they have been buying selectively in many mid and small caps even while selling in large caps across sectors. The global trend of buying in AI stocks which was dominant last year is continuing this year too. Consequently, markets like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are attracting huge inflows. This was evident in April FPI activity too, says VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries announced on Monday that it will acquire US-based Organon & Co. in an all-cash transaction valued at an enterprise worth of $11.75 billion.

Under the definitive agreement signed by the two companies, Sun Pharma will purchase all outstanding shares of Organon at $14 per share. The deal, which will be settled entirely in cash, values Organon at an enterprise valuation of USD 11.75 billion, the company said in an official statement.

Organon is a global healthcare company that was created in 2021 following its separation from Merck & Co., known as MSD outside the United States and Canada.

Once the acquisition is completed, Sun Pharma is expected to rank among the world’s top 25 pharmaceutical companies. The combined entity will have revenues of approximately USD 12.4 billion and will hold a strong position in the established brands and branded generics segments.

Commenting on the deal, Sun Pharma Executive Chairman Dilip Shanghvi said the acquisition marks an important step in advancing the company’s mission of reaching more patients and improving lives. He added that Organon’s product portfolio, capabilities, and global footprint complement Sun Pharma’s existing strengths, and that the combination is expected to create a broader, stronger, and more diversified business platform.

“Indian equities closed last week lower, weighed down by a combination of global and domestic headwinds. Geopolitical tensions in West Asia, stalled US–Iran talks, and crude oil crossing $100 per barrel kept sentiment under pressure. Simultaneously, the rupee weakened further on persistent FII outflows amid rising US bond yields. Domestically, the RBI flagging early signs of an economic slowdown, softer forward-looking business confidence, and foreign brokerages’ downgrade on the Indian equity outlook overshadowed an otherwise expansionary PMI reading.

IT stocks were the biggest laggards, impacted by weak earnings and cautious management guidance. In contrast, power and allied segments attracted buying interest, supported by a strong demand outlook amid an intense summer. FMCG and pharma also attracted defensive buying amid broader risk aversion.

Looking ahead, the upcoming week carries a dense macro calendar that will materially shape near-term direction. The US Fed’s rate decision and accompanying commentary will be the key catalyst, as a hawkish stance could prolong pressure on emerging markets via a stronger dollar and sustained FII outflows, while the BoJ’s policy decision adds an additional layer of global liquidity sensitivity, says Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continue to offload Indian equities; FIIs remained net sellers during last week as it sold ₹171.4 bn based on provisional exchange data. On the other hand, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) provided strong support to the market, emerging as net buyers during last week with investments totalling ₹97.8 bn based on provisional exchange data.

The month-to-date trend remain same for the 10th consecutive months with FIIs in the month of April till date have pulled out a substantial ₹563.6 bn from Indian equities, while DIIs have infused ₹394.8 bn during the same period as per provisional exchange data.

Geo-political news continues to dominate Institutional flows with President Donald Trump extending the US–Iran ceasefire until Tehran presents a unified proposal to end the conflict with the U.S. and Israel. It has briefly reduced concerns about geopolitical escalation but is likely to keep uncertainty elevated over a longer period. FIIs remained net sellers for all the five trading sessions last week, with quantum of selling increasing in the second half of the week.

Nifty snapped its two weeks winning streak and closing down by around 2% with sharp decline seen in the second half of the week. Market sentiment remained cautious as clarity on the geo-political tension and the trajectory of negotiations is still lacking. Brent crude prices remained high amid persistent supply concerns, particularly around the critical Strait of Hormuz, keeping energy markets in focus.

Looking ahead, institutional activity is expected to be driven mainly by global news flows, with developments in US–Iran negotiations remaining a key monitorable due to their potential impact on geopolitical stability and global energy markets. US FOMC and Bank of Japan rate decision followed by central bank commentary are also scheduled for next week which will also have an impact on the global equity market and institutional activity, says Pabitro Mukherjee, Associate Vice President – Research Bajaj Broking.

Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart, said domestic investors will track March 2026 industrial production data due on April 28, followed by foreign exchange reserve figures on May 1.

On the global front, attention will centre on the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement on April 29, along with the advance estimate of US first-quarter GDP and the ISM Manufacturing PMI.

He emphasised that the most significant macro trigger continues to be the geopolitical situation in West Asia. Developments involving the Strait of Hormuz and tensions between the US and Iran remain central to crude price volatility, with direct implications for inflation expectations and corporate profitability.

Hariprasad K, founder and research analyst at Livelong Wealth, noted that rising tensions in West Asia, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, along with the collapse of US-Iran negotiations, have added a substantial geopolitical risk premium to global markets. This uncertainty has pushed crude oil prices higher, with Brent crude hovering around $107 a barrel.

For India, he said, oil remains the most important macroeconomic variable. Persistently high crude prices can fuel inflation, weaken the rupee, and squeeze corporate margins across sectors.

He also pointed out that a busy earnings calendar this week is likely to drive considerable stock-specific activity.

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said markets are likely to stay volatile and heavily influenced by news flow. Investors will be closely watching progress in US-Iran talks, fluctuations in crude prices, and broader international cues.

A stable or softer crude oil market could help ease macroeconomic concerns and improve risk appetite. On the other hand, any escalation in tensions or extended disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could reignite volatility and lead to profit-taking.

He added that the ongoing fourth-quarter earnings season will remain a major trigger for stock-specific movements. Investors are expected to closely analyse earnings figures, management commentary, future guidance, and sector outlooks to reassess growth prospects and valuations across industries.

Concerns over inflation have intensified as tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have kept crude prices elevated.

Apart from geopolitical developments, investors will also keep a close eye on the upcoming interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve.