Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com
Bitcoin traded near $63,500 on Friday, down about 1.9% over 24 hours, as the market gave back part of its inflation-led rebound. Softer U.S. price data reduced expectations of an immediate Federal Reserve rate increase. However, renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities, higher oil prices, and weaker risk appetite limited demand for cryptocurrencies.
Immediate support is near $63,400, followed by $62,000-$62,500 and the psychological $60,000 level. Resistance is located around $65,000, followed by $66,000-$67,000. A recovery above $65,000 would stabilise the short-term structure, while a break below $63,400 could reopen a test of $62,000.
On-chain conditions are improving but do not yet confirm a durable recovery. Long-term holder capitulation has started retreating from its cycle peak. Buyers also absorbed supply around the June lows.However, Bitcoin remains below the short-term-holder cost basis near $69,000, where recent buyers may sell as they approach breakeven. Derivatives traders are also reducing bearish positions, but stronger spot demand has yet to follow.
US spot Bitcoin ETF demand remains volatile. Funds recorded a $424.7 million outflow on July 13, followed by inflows of $181.1 million on July 14 and $107.7 million on July 15. July 16 showed a preliminary $45.7 million inflow.
Large-cap altcoins were broadly weaker. Ethereum fell 3.3% to $1,856, BNB declined 1.4% to $571, XRP lost 2.4% to $1.09, Solana dropped 2.4% to $75.13 and TRON eased 0.5% to $0.323.
Markets assign an 11% probability of a July Fed rate increase, down from 25% a week earlier, while pricing about 26 basis points of tightening by December. The July 28-29 Fed meeting, July 30 GDP and PCE data, and oil-market developments remain key catalysts.
Our advice: Investors should avoid chasing short-term rebounds. Staggered accumulation, limited leverage and disciplined position sizing remain preferable until Bitcoin reclaims $65,000 and ETF inflows become more consistent.
