2 min read
US stock futures edged up on Thursday as Wall Street digested fresh jobs data amid rising rate-cut bets, with risks to Federal Reserve independence also in focus ahead of a key Senate hearing.
S&P 500 futures (ES=F) moved up 0.1%, while those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) rose 0.2%. Meanwhile, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) dipped 0.1% after stocks mostly closed higher on Wednesday.
Private sector job growth slowed dramatically in August, according to the monthly report from ADP. Private payrolls grew by 54,000, compared with estimates for 65,000.
The data served as the latest sign of shakiness in the labor market after July jobs openings showed further cracks, fueling confidence that Fed officials will lower rates at their September meeting. Traders are pricing in a 97% chance of a cut as of Thursday morning, compared with around 90% before the JOLTS data. More signs of stress could make the case for deeper rate cuts to follow than currently priced in.
Meanwhile, President Trump’s campaign to recast the Fed in pursuit of rate cuts faces a test in Senate, at a hearing to confirm his pick Stephen Miran for governor at the central bank. Investors appear to be preparing for a potential rise in inflation as concerns about Fed independence build, while Goldman Sachs said gold (GC=F) could rally to almost $5,000 an ounce if its standing is damaged.
On the corporate front, Salesforce (CRM) stock sank in premarket trading after its third quarter revenue forecast fell short, signaling the payoff from its AI platform is lagging. American Eagle (AEO) shares, however, soared after the apparel retailer predicted a sales boost thanks to ads featuring actress Sydney Sweeney and NFL player Travis Kelce.
Broadcom (AVGO), Lululemon (LULU), and DocuSign (DOCU) are set to report earnings on Thursday.
LIVE 7 updates
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C3.AI’s new CEO
C3.AI (AI) shares are getting slammed premarket after the disastrous quarter they pre-announced a few weeks ago was fully uncovered. The earnings call was brief and not exactly upbeat. The company pulled its full-year guidance as its new CEO, who was announced last night, digs in with his plan.
The new CEO, Stephen Ehikian, comes straight from the Trump administration, where he was a key player in DOGE tasked with cutting government expenses (especially government building leases). But his extensive tech background (sold two businesses to Salesforce) also helped him secure AI deals between large private companies and the government.
Given Ehikian’s resume, this is a good hire on paper. However, he will have to move quickly to restore investor confidence.
I have Ehikian and C3.AI founder Tom Siebel on with me today at 9:40 a.m. ET live on Opening Bid. Tune in here.
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Follow up on Goldman’s gold call
I have been picking through Goldman’s bullish note on gold (see prior post below), and what’s not getting talked about much (but should) is what they said on the outlook for copper prices.
Seeing as copper is an important industrial metal, Goldman’s bullishness could have ramifications for the profit margins of many industrial powerhouses.
Goldman’s co-head of commodities research Samantha Dart said:
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Google can thank OpenAI for its big win in court
Google can thank OpenAI for its big win in court, Yahoo Finance’s Hamza Shaban writes in today’s Morning Brief:
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Salesforce stock slides after weak sales forecast stokes AI worries
Salesforce (CRM) shares dropped nearly 7% before the bell on Thursday, after the cloud software provider’s weak third quarter revenue forecast hinted at a delayed payoff from its AI investments.
Reuters reports:
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American Eagle stock soars after Sydney Sweeney, Travis Kelce boost
Shares of American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) shot up nearly 24% in premarket trading after the clothing retailer applauded the impact of high-profile ad campaigns in its earnings report late Wednesday.
American Eagle’s CEO Jay Schottenstein credited high-profile ads featuring actor Sydney Sweeney and National Football League (NFL) star Travis Kelce with spurring demand for its jeans and apparel.
“The fall season is off to a positive start. Fueled by stronger product offerings and the success of recent marketing campaigns with Sydney Sweeney and Travis Kelce, we have seen an uptick in customer awareness, engagement and comparable sales,” Schottenstein said in the results release.
Reuters reports:
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Goldman says gold near $5,000 is possible if Fed standing is damaged
Bloomberg reports:
Gold (GC=F) could rally to almost $5,000 an ounce if the Federal Reserve’s independence were damaged and investors shifted just a small portion of holdings from Treasuries into bullion, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.
“A scenario where Fed independence is damaged would likely lead to higher inflation, lower stock and long-dated bond prices, and an erosion of the dollar’s reserve-currency status,” analysts including Samantha Dart said in a note. “In contrast, gold is a store of value that doesn’t rely on institutional trust.”
The bank outlined a range of possible outcomes for the metal, with a baseline forecast for a surge to $4,000 an ounce by mid-2026; a so-called tail-risk scenario of $4,500; and an estimate of almost $5,000 if just 1% of the privately-owned US Treasury market were to flow into gold.
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Nasdaq updates rules to list on exchanges to combat scams
Bloomberg reports:
