Updated 2 min read
US stocks wavered on Tuesday as investors digested a revision to US jobs numbers that showed further labor market weakness that could reset expectations for interest-rate cuts.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) climbed 0.1%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.1%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) reversed gains to drop 0.2% after stocks rose on Monday to stay in record-high territory.
Labor market data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed the US economy likely added 911,000 fewer jobs than previously thought in the 12-month period through March 2025 — a steeper revision than expected. Economists tracked by Bloomberg had expected the data to show around 680,000 fewer jobs added to the economy in that time frame.
The otherwise regular update took higher economic and political prominence than usual as debate reigns over how the Federal Reserve will react to the data after a slew of indications that the labor market is slowing down. So far, those signs have convinced traders that an interest-rate cut is coming when Fed policymakers meet next week. Now the question has shifted to how large the reduction might be, and whether that will be a boon for stocks.
Reports on inflation crucial to Fed thinking are due later in the week, with the latest reading of the producer price index (PPI) on Wednesday and the consumer price index (CPI) on Thursday. The CPI and PPI readings will shine light on whether rising prices could become a significant stumbling block to deep or sustained rate cuts.
Also in focus is Apple’s (AAPL) annual fall event, where the tech giant is expected to showcase devices including the iPhone 17 and iPhone Air, as well as new watches and heart rate-tracking AirPods. Experts question whether the smartphone updates can generate enough consumer interest to drive up sales, especially following a tariff-fueled buying frenzy earlier this year.
Elsewhere on the corporate front, shares of Tourmaline Bio (TRML) and Nebius (NBIS) both jumped over 40% on deal news, with Swiss pharma giant Novartis (NVS, NOVN.SW) and Big Tech Microsoft (MSFT) respectively.
Oracle (ORCL) and GameStop (GME) are set to report earnings after the bell.
LIVE 15 updates
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Oracle set to report Q1 earnings with Wall Street expecting 30% AI-fueled growth in cloud business
Oracle (ORCL) is scheduled to report its fiscal first quarter earnings after the bell Tuesday, with Wall Street analysts expecting a 30% year-over-year jump in cloud revenue.
Yahoo Finance’s Laura Bratton reports:
The company has been securing a massive amount of Nvidia’s coveted GPUs (graphics processing units, or AI chips) and renting out that computing power through its OCI cloud business.
Analysts expect Cloud Services, the company’s largest revenue driver, to increase to $7.3 billion in Q1.
More important for investors is any additional color the company may provide on its reported $30 billion deal with OpenAI, analyst said. Read the full story here.
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Energy gains, Industrials and Materials sectors lead losses
The Energy Sector (XLE) led gains in stocks on the S&P 500 (^GSPC) on Tuesday, adding around 1.7%. The sector climbed as oil (CL=F, BZ=F) extended a recent rise following an Israeli strike on Qatar.
Chevron (CVX) climbed 1.5%, and ConocoPhillips (COP) rose 2%. Exxon Mobil (XOM) stock added more than 2% as the company also announced the purchase of a battery factory to further its push into the energy storage market.
Meanwhile, the Materials and Industrial Sectors (XLB, XLI) fell 1.5% and just over 1%, leading losses.
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Rate cut bets steady after steeper-than-expected jobs revision
Rate cut bets were in focus but remained steady after data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics posted a sharper-than-expected revision to jobs data for the 12 months through March 2025.
Traders continued to price in 90% chances of a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve at its September meeting and 10% odds of a 50 basis point cut following the release of the BLS data on Tuesday, according to CME Group.
Recent federal economic data has shown deepening cracks in the US labor market, leading to investor certainty that the central bank will reduce interest rates this month but raising fears of a recession.
After last week’s August jobs report was far weaker than projected, the rate cut debate has centered on how steep the cuts will be rather than whether they will happen at all.
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The US economy added 911,000 fewer jobs than expected between March 2024 and March 2025
US nonfarm payrolls for the 12 months ended March 2025 were slashed by 911,000 jobs, according to preliminary revisions released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists had predicted a downward shift of 682,000 jobs for the period, according to analysts tracked by Bloomberg data.
The revisions follow an August payrolls increase of only 22,000 jobs, according to BLS data released Friday, coming in far below economists’ consensus estimate of 75,000 jobs added.
That data also showed the economy lost jobs in June for the first time in four and a half years, losing 13,000 jobs compared to prior estimates of 14,000 jobs added.
Last year’s release of this same preliminary annual revision fell during the heated final stretch of the presidential campaign — and became an immediate flash point when it showed the US economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than thought.
The August figures released Friday have been interpreted as largely locking in a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, shifting the question away from one of whether the central bank will cut rates to just how big a nearly guaranteed cut will be.
Traders are pricing in a 100% chance of a cut, with 90% odds of a cut of 25 basis points versus 10% odds of a jumbo 50 basis point cut, according to CME data.
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Stocks creep higher at the open
US stocks crept higher on Tuesday as investors expected a revision to jobs numbers to show evidence of further weakening in the labor market weakness that could affect expectations for interest rate cuts.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) nudged up less than 0.1%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained over 0.1%.
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Why a Fed rate cut might not help the stock market
Traders are all but certain an interest rate cut is coming at the Fed’s meeting next week, and many are hoping that dovishness will boost stocks after a choppy summer.
But some Wall Street strategists are warning that rate cuts may not turn out to be all good news for stocks in the near term.
Yahoo Finance’s Allie Canal reports:
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SailPoint stock tumbles
SailPoint (SAIL) shares are getting hammered in premarket, last down about 12% after the identity security company’s second quarter earnings release.
I’m not seeing what the Street is seeing: Full-year guidance lifted across the board. I am on the earnings call, and it seems like it’s going well — the comments on demand are bullish.
I am live on Yahoo Finance with SailPoint CEO Mark McClain at around 9:45 a.m. ET for more on the results. Tune in here.
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Goldman Sachs Tech Conference Takeaways: Day 1
Day 1 is in the books for me at the big Goldman Sachs tech and media conference in San Francisco — I’m prepping as we speak for a super-busy Day 2.
A couple of worthwhile takeaways from my convos:
Some key live chats on Yahoo Finance coming up today:
Tune in here! More convos with Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff, CoreWeave CEO Michael Intrator, and Affirm CEO Max Levchin will be dropping Wednesday morning on Yahoo Finance.
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Good morning. Here’s what’s happening today.
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The Fed still has the power to juice the market
There’s a lot of market noise in the Federal Reserve’s quiet period ahead of its policy meeting next week, Yahoo Finance’s Hamza Shaban notes in today’s Morning Brief.
He reports:
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Why Wall Street and Washington will be closely watching today’s jobs revisions
A revised look at America’s jobs landscape over the last year is coming Tuesday morning, with a number that is widely expected to rip through economic and political circles.
Yahoo Finance’s Ben Werschkul reports:
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Premarket trending tickers: Nebius, Fox and Dell
Here’s a look at some of the top stocks trending in premarket trading:
Nebius Group (NBIS) stock rose 50% before the bell on Tuesday after announcing it had signed a AI deal with Microsoft (MSFT) worth $17.4 billion on Monday.
Fox (FOX) shares fell 4% premarket following the Murdoch family reaching a deal that will see Rupert Murdoch’s eldest son Lachlan Murdoch take control of the family media empire that includes Fox News and the Wall Street Journal.
Dell (DELL) shares fell 1% before the bell following the departure of the tech company’s CFO, Yvonne McGill.
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Tourmaline stock surges after $1.4B Novartis deal
Tourmaline Bio (TRML) shares soared over 50% in premarket after Novartis (NVS, NOVN.SW) said it is buying the US company in a $1.4 billion deal.
The Swiss pharma giant will pay $48 a share for Tourmaline, with the deal expected to close in the fourth quarter.
Novartis stock slipped slightly on Wall Street and in Switzerland.
Reuters reports:
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Apple’s annual Phone event is happening today. Here’s what to expect.
Apple (AAPL) opens the doors to its annual fall event at its Cupertino, Calif., headquarters, where the company is expected to debut its latest iPhone and Apple Watch lineups later Tuesday.
Yahoo Finance’s Daniel Howley lays out what to expect at the show:
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Gold touches new record overnight
Gold (GC=F) reached a new record overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning, buoyed by optimism over a rate cut at the Fed’s meeting next week.
Bloomberg reports:
