Stock Market Today (LIVE): Magnificent Seven Earnings and Powell’s Final Fed Meeting Collide in the Most Important Day for Markets This Year

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Wingstop Grows Stores, Shrinks Comps

9:20 am — WING -10.4% in pre-market trading

The main story for Wingstop (WING 6.43%) is the declining same store sales growth as this morning they reported a decline of 8.7% sending shares down over 10% pre-market. Guidance of “low-single digit decline in domestic same store sales growth” doesn’t provide hope. This is disappointing and hopefully we’ll see some commentary in the upcoming earnings call about what is going on and how they are addressing it. Despite this, they are growing store count and generating income and cash. I’m still bullish for the long-term prospects of the company and believe this could be short-term headwinds.

Opening Bell

9:35 am

The S&P 500 is treading water Wednesday as a “perfect storm” of geopolitical tension and central bank shifts keeps investors on edge. Brent crude jumped 3% to $114 per barrel following reports that President Trump ordered an extended blockade of Iranian ports, throttling global supply. Meanwhile, Jerome Powell presides over his final Federal Reserve meeting before nominated successor Kevin Warsh takes the helm in May. While interest rates are expected to hold steady, all eyes are on the post-close earnings from Alphabet (GOOG +0.81%), Amazon (AMZN +1.63%), Meta Platforms (META +0.02%), and Microsoft (MSFT 1.14%). These titans must prove their massive artificial intelligence investments are yielding tangible revenue to sustain the market’s record-high valuations.

• Data Center Tailwinds: Seagate Technology (STX +16.07%) and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI +24.58%) skyrocketed 12% and 19% respectively after reporting robust demand for AI infrastructure, providing a needed boost to the chip sector.
• Hormuz Chokepoint: Shipping transits through the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted over 50% this week, forcing oil traders to price in a “war premium” that is now leaking into US gasoline prices.

Top of the Morning

8:15 am

The Wall Street Journal dropped a big story yesterday, reporting OpenAI missed internal targets for weekly users and revenue. CFO Sarah Friar has privately worried about whether the company can fund its compute commitments, and the board reportedly is pushing back on Sam Altman’s instinct to keep locking up data center capacity. Nvidia (NVDA 1.03%), Oracle (ORCL 1.66%), SoftBank, and other companies tied to open AI all sold off on the news.

OpenAI’s response was the kind of denial that tells you the reporting is solid. Altman and Friar issued a joint statement calling any suggestion of a rift ridiculous and insisting they are totally aligned on buying as much compute as possible. When you have to call a story ridiculous, the story is usually closer to true than you’d like. In the words of Shakespeare, “the lady doth protest too much, methinks”

Here’s what I think the market is missing. OpenAI losing share is not the same thing as AI demand slowing down. The Journal’s reporting tells you exactly where ChatGPT’s users went. Gemini took consumer share. Anthropic took coding and enterprise. That’s a more competitive market, not a smaller one. The chips, the cloud capacity, the power generation underneath all of it gets used either way.

TSMC Dumps Entire Arm Holdings Stake

8:00 am — TSM +0.17%, ARM +1.35% in pre-market trading

In a notable shift within the semiconductor ecosystem, TSMC (TSM +0.53%) has fully exited its position in UK chip designer Arm Holdings (ARM 0.32%). The Taiwanese foundry giant sold its remaining 1.11 million shares through a subsidiary this week, pocketing approximately $231 million in proceeds. Executed at an average price of $207.65 per share, the sale resulted in a $174 million gain for the company’s bottom line. Management characterized the divestment as a routine component of a broader equity disposal strategy aimed at optimizing its massive investment portfolio as it focuses on core manufacturing expansion.

• High-Level Portfolio Pruning: While the exit marks the end of a direct equity tie, the technical partnership remains intact as both firms are essential cogs in the global AI hardware supply chain.
• Capital Efficiency Focus: Clearing these holdings provides TSMC with additional liquidity to fund its capital-intensive transition to next-generation 2nm production nodes.

This Morning’s Breakfast News

7:30 am — ENPH -11.08% in pre-market trading

Enphase Energy (ENPH 8.40%) dropped more than 10% in pre-market trading, after posting a 31% fall in non-GAAP earnings per share for its fiscal first quarter, year over year (YoY). Recommended in Stock Advisor by Team Rule Breakers, the maker of solar energy technology saw U.S. revenue fall sharply – against a backdrop of tariff costs and oil-focused energy priorities. Tougher domestic trading was offset in part by international expansion.

• “Europe is increasingly becoming a battery-critical market”: CEO Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman spoke of “solar and battery activations up healthy double digits across multiple European markets.” But due to competition, he said “we are reducing our distributor list prices for batteries by approximately 10% in May, which follows a 20% reduction for microinverters already implemented from December.”
• Management expects $280 to $310 million revenue in Q2: Following Q1 revenue of $282.9 million, we should see non-GAAP gross margins stable between 44% and 47% – as Enphase targets commercialization of next-generation products.

OpenAI Breaks Microsoft Exclusivity for AWS

7:25 am — AMZN unchanged in pre-market trading

Amazon (AMZN +1.63%) secured a landmark win for its cloud division, AWS, by bringing OpenAI’s frontier models and “agentic” tools to its Bedrock platform. This expansion follows a strategic pivot by OpenAI to loosen exclusivity with longtime partner Microsoft (MSFT 1.14%). In exchange for allowing the start-up to distribute models on rival clouds, Microsoft renegotiated its revenue-sharing terms and removed a risky clause regarding “Artificial General Intelligence” that threatened its future access. The deal is backed by serious capital, including a potential $50 billion investment commitment from Amazon and a massive $138 billion contract for OpenAI to procure data center capacity from the retail and cloud giant.

• Diversified AI Arsenal: Amazon is aggressively hedging its bets by hosting OpenAI alongside Meta (META +0.02%) and Anthropic, positioning AWS as the ultimate neutral ground for enterprise AI.
• The “Agentic” Shift: Markets are moving beyond simple chatbots toward autonomous AI agents, a high-margin software evolution that requires the massive scale only the biggest cloud providers can offer.

ICYMI: Tuesday’s Scoreboard

6:30 am — NVDA unchanged in pre-market trading

Nvidia (NVDA 1.03%) was the subject of the latest Scoreboard video.

Disney’s ABC Licenses Under FCC Political Fire

6:00 am — DIS -0.18% in pre-market trading

Disney (DIS 0.42%) is facing a rare regulatory challenge as FCC Chairman Brendan Carr ordered an early review of the company’s broadcast station licenses, citing an ongoing investigation into its diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) practices. The move accelerates renewals for eight ABC-owned stations that weren’t originally due until 2028, forcing a filing by May 28. While the FCC cites potential “unlawful discrimination” violations, the action arrives amid heightening political tension and calls from the White House to penalize the network over late-night commentary. Critics within the commission have already labeled the move an “unlawful political stunt,” signaling a looming First Amendment showdown.

• Broadcast Industry Jitters: This aggressive oversight could set a precedent for other media giants like Comcast (CMCSA 0.60%) and Paramount Skydance (PSKY 1.90%), which are also facing scrutiny under the current commission.
• Valuation Risk: While affiliates like Nexstar Media Group (NXST 0.78%) remain unaffected, any threat to owned-and-operated stations risks disrupting high-margin local ad revenue and core network distribution.

Brown-Forman Left at the Altar by Pernod

5:15 am — BF .B -5.88% in pre-market trading

The global spirits industry remains in a sober mood as Pernod Ricard abandoned its pursuit of Brown-Forman (BFB 10.10%), ending hopes for a $16 billion powerhouse merger. Negotiators failed to reach terms amid a challenging environment where health-conscious consumers and economic pressures in the U.S. and China are denting premium liquor sales. While Pernod Ricard exits the bar, the door remains ajar for a $15 billion all-cash rival bid from privately held Sazerac. Investors reacted poorly to the news, sending shares of the Jack Daniel’s parent lower as the company grapples with a significant valuation slide over the past year.

• Family Legacy Roadblocks: The Brown family’s tight voting control and disputes over headquarters locations likely stifled the stock-heavy deal, prioritizing heritage over consolidation.
• The Wellness Headwind: Shrinking consumption volumes are forcing spirits leaders to choose between aggressive M&A or leaner operations to protect thinning margins.

Before the Opening Bell

5:00 am

Investors are navigating a high-stakes Wednesday as stock futures edge higher ahead of a massive “Magnificent Seven” earnings dump and Jerome Powell’s potentially final Federal Reserve meeting. Sentiment remains fragile following reports that OpenAI missed internal growth targets, dragging down key partners like Oracle (ORCL 1.66%) and high-flying chipmakers Broadcom (AVGO 0.23%) and Nvidia (NVDA 1.03%). All eyes now turn to after-hours reports from Alphabet (GOOG +0.81%), Amazon (AMZN +1.63%), Meta (META +0.02%), and Microsoft (MSFT 1.14%). Shareholders are demanding proof that massive capital expenditures in artificial intelligence are finally fueling the top line, rather than just inflating costs.

• Monetary Musical Chairs: While rates should hold steady, the looming leadership transition at the Fed creates a cloud of policy uncertainty for long-term portfolios.
• The Revenue Reality Check: Markets are punishing AI hype that lacks hardware-driven results, placing immense pressure on cloud providers to show immediate ROI.

This article was created using Large Language Models (LLMs) based on The Motley Fool’s insights and investing approach. It has been reviewed by our AI quality control systems. Since LLMs cannot (currently) own stocks, it has no positions in any of the stocks mentioned. Nicholas Sciple has positions in Meta Platforms. Sanmeet Deo, CFA has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, and Wingstop. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, NXP Semiconductors, Nvidia, Oracle, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, and Walt Disney. The Motley Fool recommends Comcast, Enphase Energy, and Wingstop. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.