Stock Market Today (LIVE): Markets Return to Pre-Conflict Levels as Trump Says Iran Has Reached Out to Work Out a Deal

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Top of the Morning

8:25 am — SNBR +5.88% in pre-market trading

There’s nothing better than a good night’s sleep, right?

Well, unless it’s on a Sleep Number bed.

Word came out via Bloomberg, on April Fool’s Day no less, that the Sleep Number Corporation (SNBR +2.35%) was seeking “rescue financing” in order to prevent a potential bankruptcy filing.

Here’s the thing – the damage potentially necessitating corporate equity wipe-out? It’s a completely self-inflicted wound.

CarMax Posts 47% EPS Drop in Fiscal Q4

8:00 am — KMX -6.91% in pre-market trading

CarMax (KMX 12.61%) reported another challenging quarter as sales momentum remained weak and profitability declined. Earnings per share (Non-GAAP) dropped to $0.34 from $0.64, with revenue down 1%. Management eyes deeper cost reductions and digital platform improvements, but offered no specific outlook for fiscal 2027.

This Morning’s Breakfast News

7:30 am — NVO +2.50% in pre-market trading

Novo Nordisk (NVO +2.28%) announced a new partnership with OpenAI, designed to push AI transformation in healthcare and help bring new and enhanced treatments to patients quicker.

• “We know there are therapies still waiting to be discovered that could change their lives”: Mike Doustdar, Novo’s CEO, explained how OpenAI’s advanced capabilities should give “us the ability to analyse datasets at a scale that was previously impossible, identify patterns we could not see, and test hypotheses faster than ever.”
• “The thing with Novo is they look pretty cheap right now”: Last month, Fool analyst Karl Thiel said “I think investors see slowing growth and more looming competition” but “they just need the right deal or the right internal development to change that calculus.”

BlackRock Upgrades U.S. Stocks on Profit Strength

7:15 am — BLK +1.01% in pre-market trading

BlackRock (BLK +3.95%) has upgraded U.S. equities to “overweight” from “neutral,” citing resilient corporate profits and a belief that the economic fallout from the Iran conflict remains contained. The $14.2 trillion asset manager pointed to two critical signals for reupping risk: signs of restored shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and a “high threshold” for further military escalation. Despite geopolitical friction, S&P 500 earnings are projected to climb 12.6% this quarter–potentially reaching 19% if historical beat rates hold. BlackRock strategists noted that while technology profits are forecast to grow 45% this year, the sector’s valuation relative to the broader market is at its lowest level since mid-2020, presenting a compelling entry point for investors.

• Tech Sector Opportunity: The firm highlighted that information technology’s valuation premium has eroded significantly, making it an attractive thematic play alongside defense stocks during the current earnings season.
• Earnings Resilience: Upgraded forecasts for both U.S. and emerging markets suggest that global growth remains durable despite the February 28 conflict onset, providing a fundamental floor for equities even if diplomatic talks remain fluid.

ICYMI: Monday’s Scoreboard

6:30 am — RMBS +0.74% in pre-market trading

Rambus (RMBS +1.78%) was the subject of the latest Scoreboard video.

Meta Set to Dethrone Google in Global Ad Revenue

6:00 am — META +0.65%, GOOG +0.72% in pre-market trading

Meta Platforms (META +2.44%) is projected to surpass Alphabet (GOOG +1.78%) as the world’s top digital advertising revenue generator by the end of 2026, according to a new Emarketer forecast. Meta’s net worldwide ad revenues are expected to hit $243.46 billion, securing a 26.8% global market share, fueled largely by AI-driven automation tools and the monetization of Reels. While Google’s ad revenues are still growing, analysts suggest its diversified business model and reliance on subscription services like YouTube Premium may hinder its ability to match Meta’s singular focus on ad-tech performance. Together with Amazon (AMZN +2.21%), which is on track for $82 billion in ad revenue, the “Big Three” will control over 62% of all global digital ad spending this year.

• The AI Advantage: Meta’s “Advantage+” and generative AI creative tools are delivering higher returns for advertisers, effectively siphoning budgets away from traditional search and legacy platforms.
• Amazon’s Rising Threat: While Meta and Google fight for the top spot, Amazon’s ad business is growing at a faster clip, leveraging deep first-party shopper data to command a 9% share of the global market.

Bloom Energy Lights Up on Oracle’s 2.8GW Deal

5:15 am — BE +15.30% in pre-market trading

Bloom Energy (BE +19.55%) rose over 15% ahead of the market open after confirming the expansion of an existing partnership with Oracle (ORCL +5.66%), more than doubling the amount of gigawatt power supply.

• “The expanded partnership underscores Bloom’s capability to provide fast, reliable power suited for AI workloads”: Bloom’s statement confirmed Oracle now intends to procure up to 2.8 gigawatts of Bloom’s fuel cell systems in the coming years, primarily to support Oracle’s projects in the U.S.
• The news reflects a growing shift away from traditional power systems: Bloom’s modular fuel cell systems can be deployed far faster than traditional power solutions, making it more appealing for large tech companies like Oracle in the race to get operational.

Before the Opening Bell

5:00 am

Stock futures remained stable Tuesday as the S&P 500 fully recovered its losses from the Middle East conflict, signaling investor confidence despite a breakdown in formal negotiations. Although President Trump recently ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, he claimed Monday that Iranian officials have since reached out to “work out a deal,” reigniting hopes for a diplomatic off-ramp. This resilience suggests that Wall Street is looking past the immediate military posturing, betting instead that the “war premium” on equities was overblown. While the geopolitical situation remains fluid, the market’s return to pre-conflict levels indicates a significant shift from panic to cautious optimism.

• Geopolitical Risk Pricing: The market’s rapid rebound implies that traders are prioritizing Trump’s rhetoric of a potential “grand bargain” over the logistical risks posed by a continued blockade of the world’s most critical energy artery.
• Inflationary Easing: As equity indices stabilize, the “fear trade” in commodities has cooled slightly, providing a reprieve for broad-market valuations that were previously weighed down by the threat of a sustained energy-led inflation spike.

This article was created using Large Language Models (LLMs) based on The Motley Fool’s insights and investing approach. It has been reviewed by our AI quality control systems. Since LLMs cannot (currently) own stocks, it has no positions in any of the stocks mentioned. Jim Gillies has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Bloom Energy, CarMax, Meta Platforms, and Oracle. The Motley Fool recommends BlackRock, Novo Nordisk, and Sleep Number. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.