The S&P 500 slipped on the first trading day of the second half of 2026 as investors continued rotating out of semiconductor stocks, while Polymarket traders remain evenly divided over Thursday’s opening direction.
The S&P 500 fell 0.22% to close at 7,483.23 on Wednesday. The July 2 Polymarket contract now implies a 47% probability that the benchmark index will open higher on Thursday, after volatile trading that saw the odds swing sharply before recovering toward even odds.
Why That Number Matters
Markets enter Thursday awaiting the June nonfarm payrolls report, one of the most closely watched economic releases for clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect the U.S. economy to have added 115,000 jobs last month.
Wednesday also marked the first full trading day of the second half of 2026, following a first half in which the S&P 500 gained 9.6% and advanced 14.9% during the second quarter, its strongest quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2020.
Meanwhile, the July 1 Polymarket contract attracted $374,166 in traded volume — the highest in weeks after a period of relatively thin activity — underscoring heightened trader interest as markets entered the second half of the year.
What’s Behind The Move?
Despite Wednesday’s weakness, several strategists argue the ongoing rotation out of semiconductor stocks is a healthy sign for the broader bull market. Cyclical sectors such as industrials and financials have continued attracting inflows as investors broaden exposure beyond artificial intelligence leaders.
But a stronger-than-expected jobs reading could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer, potentially lifting Treasury yields and challenging the recent equity rally.
“The good news is that the reason inflation picked up momentum – the Iran war-led spike in energy prices – has largely faded. But the bad news is that if we see a correction in the technology complex, the rest of the index may find it hard to reverse the tide,” said Swissquote Senior Analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya.
S&P 500 futures were modestly lower early Thursday, slipping 0.21%.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Wednesday at 7,478.84, below Tuesday’s close of 7,499.36, meaning the July 1 Polymarket bet resolved “Down.”
Image via Shutterstock
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
To add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.
