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The S&P 500 closed higher on Friday, surging 0.86% to close at 7,656.98, but U.S. stock futures were pointing lower early Monday as investors grappled with surging oil prices, elevated Treasury yields and a looming Federal Reserve interest-rate decision.
The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is bullish heading into Monday. The September 14 contract shows only 6% of traders betting “Up,” following $14,700 in traded volume on the April 13 outcome.
Why That Number Matters
Futures Point Lower: S&P 500 futures were down about 0.5% early Monday, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped roughly 1.1%, according to market data cited by Reuters. The weakness follows a sharp rise in energy prices and a selloff in Asian equities.
Oil Surge Adds Pressure: Brent crude climbed above $107 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude traded above $102. Brent gained nearly 9% last week as attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions around key shipping routes raised fears of prolonged supply shortages.
Fed Rate-Hike Bets Jump: The CME Group’s FedWatch tool projections show market pricing in a 86.7% likelihood of the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates at its September meeting.
The Bull Case
Despite the pressure from higher rates and oil prices, Wall Street strategists continue to see reasons for stocks to remain resilient.
The S&P 500 also remains close to record territory after a period of relatively subdued volatility.
How The Previous Bet Played Out
The previous Sept. 11 Polymarket contract resolved “Up.” U.S. stocks ended higher that session despite initially mixed futures.
On Friday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed higher. SPY surged 0.85% to $764.29, while QQQ surged 0.87% to $714.88. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), also ended 0.97% higher at $525.79.
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This article Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today? originally appeared on Benzinga.com
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