Stock Markets are scared of renewed Oil pressure – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday Levels

• The US just rejected the latest Iranian proposal but Stock Markets don’t seem to care much, down small despite the large rise in Oil
• US Markets are still lower compared to last week due to the repricing of the Warsh trade
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

US stock indexes are down just a little from where they closed on Friday, even after the latest geopolitical news.

A senior US official told Axios that the United States has turned down Iran’s latest diplomatic proposal. The White House says the offer does not include real concessions on Tehran’s nuclear program and calls it just “token improvements.”

Because of this, tensions in the Middle East remain high, and WTI Crude oil prices have jumped amid continued concerns about the Strait of Hormuz.

However, bad news from the Middle East is not causing as much panic in the stock market as it used to. In the past, higher oil prices would drag down risk assets, but stocks are mostly shrugging off this latest setback.

The main reason US markets are a bit lower than last week is the ongoing adjustment to the “Kevin Warsh trade.”

After Kevin Warsh was named the next Federal Reserve Chairman, markets started thinking about what a big cut in the Fed’s balance sheet could mean over time.

Market Participants are slowly getting ready for the central bank to sell assets, which unsettled the bond market and caused sharp drops in stocks and crypto last Friday.

This anticipated regime change in liquidity has made people worry about a return to the tough times before the global financial crisis.

At the start of the new trading week, the negative effects from the Kevin Warsh trade are easing. The selloffs are still relatively small in today’s Stock Market action.

The early panic has faded as traders wait to hear more from the new Fed Chair about possible tighter policy. If Warsh confirms worries about a liquidity drain, stocks could drop more. For now, most people are waiting and staying cautious.

Let’s get ready for this week by diving into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500.

The picture almost completely inverted compared to what we have seen in the past 2/3 weeks, with Semiconductors actually tumbling to start the week and allowing more traditional Tech and defensive sectors to rebound – Finance and Energy minerals are the leaders of today’s action.

Producer Manufacturing however is also taking a hit, which seems to be a profit-taking trade.

The Dow Jones is the only index remaining close to unchanged on the session, supported by the broader rise in defensive equities – but the price action isn’t much more bullish.

Sellers appeared at the 2H 50-period MA and are rejecting the index right back into the past week’s range between 49,000 and 49,900.

It seems that consolidation is the path of least resistance in the waiting for more fundamental news for the DJIA.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• 2H 50-MA (49,726)
• 49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 Highs (range top)
• ATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500
• All-Time Highs 50,544

Support Levels

• April 14 Gap Fill Pivot 49,500
• Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (range lows)
• Momentum Support 48,500
• Pivotal Support at 48,000 (mid-term bearish below)
• Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600

Nasdaq has officially stalled is insane rally for the first time since mid-April, topping right below the huge 30,000 milestone.

Despite a few attempts to trade above it, sellers brought back the Index below 29,000, but some dip-buyers seem to be holding the 28,900 level.

Any break of that mini-intraday support could bring heavy selling flows back towards 28,000 first, with very minor supports below – Hence it could be difficult to see consequential dip-buying until a retest of the prior ATH record (~26,300), but this still remains quite far.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 29,250 consolidation and momentum pivot
• 29,265 2H 50-period MA
• 29,500 – 29,600 current resistance (ATH)

Support Levels

• 28,900 mini intraday support
• 28,500 Minor support
• 28,000 Major psychological resistance now Pivot (and channel highs)
• 27,500 micro-support
• Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300

The S&P 500 has faked out of its longer-run upward channel, now selling back within the key technical pattern.

After retesting the 7,430 resistance (and 2H 50-period MA), the action is now getting somewhat bearish on the short-term.

Look at what happens when and if sellers bring back the index back towards 7,340 (the Channel Lows).

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 7,400 Channel Pivot (Short-term bearish below)
• 7,430 – 7,450 Intraday Resistance
• 7,525 Daily ATH Resistance

Support Levels

• 7,320 to 7,340 Past week retracement (and Channel lows)
• Pivotal Support 7,250 to 7,260
• Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020
• Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900
• Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,770
• 6,300 psychological level (War lows)

Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

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Elior brings over seven years of experience in financial markets to our analyst team. Since 2018, he has actively engaged in observing, charting, and trading, driven by his passion for mastering market dynamics. With a profound understanding of the geopolitical and macroeconomic forces that shape market movements, Elior focuses on analysing the impact of breaking news, market sentiment, and critical economic data releases on trading flows.

As a versatile analyst, he contributes powerful insights to the team, effectively integrating geopolitical and technical analysis to provide clear and comprehensive market perspectives.

Prior to joining our team, Elior honed his expertise as a Fixed Income Trader and Market Analyst at the Montreal Exchange.