The prospect of at least near-term economic disruption now appears all but certain. Early Friday, China unveiled 34% duties on goods brought in from the U.S. in response to Trump raising taxes on U.S. importers of Chinese goods by as much as 79%.
The president, however, has continued to project defiance in the face of market turmoil and criticism from global leaders. “MY POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE,” he posted to social media Friday. Later, he wrote, “ONLY THE WEAK WILL FAIL.”
Many on Wall Street are forecasting major economic fallout. “The intensity of downside risks … continues to be quite substantial,” Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said in a presentation Friday.
JPMorgan analysts published a research note late Thursday titled “There will be blood” and raised their odds of a global recession to 60% due to White House trade policies.
“A turn towards caution by households alongside a slide in business spending could well push the economy into recession next quarter,” the bank analysts wrote.
Even before Trump’s tariffs rollout Wednesday, the uncertainty surrounding his policies had caused business and consumer sentiment to plummet. Now — with Wall Street reeling, analysts warning that the trade war may be just getting started and executives wondering how long the new levies and counter-levies could stay in place — fears of a dramatic slowdown are intensifying rapidly.
If tariffs aren’t dialed back soon, they risk triggering an “economic Armageddon,” Dan Ives, an analyst with Wedbush Securities financial group, wrote in a note Friday.
“Never have we … seen a self-inflicted debacle of epic proportions like the Trump tariff slate over the last 36 hours,” he said.
Rob Wile is a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist covering breaking business stories for NBCNews.com.
J.J. McCorvey
contributed
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