Take-Two Interactive earnings analysis: questions answered and next catalysts

Investing.com — Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) is trading at $222.37, up 7.22% (as of Nov 10, 12:30 PM EST). That comes despite a headline miss. Fiscal Q2 2027 (reported Nov 9) showed EPS of -$0.29 against a $0.97 estimate. Revenue was $1.50B against $1.58B expected. The stock is still down 13.63% YTD, so this looks like a relief rally rather than a breakout.

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Questions Answered

• Is GTA VI on schedule? Yes. The CEO confirmed the Nov 19, 2026 launch. He said pre-orders are “tracking far in excess of our initial expectations.” Read more (Nov 10, 2026)

• Is the full-year outlook intact? Yes. FY2027 net bookings guidance of $8.0B–$8.2B (+19% to 22%) was reiterated. JPMorgan estimates it embeds about 34M GTA VI units, close to GTA V’s 33M in its first fiscal year. Read more (Nov 10, 2026)

• Why the miss? Bookings came in about $20M below the low end of guidance. NBA 2K27 launched softly, and mobile bookings fell 14% YoY. Management expects NBA 2K trends to accelerate in the second half. Read more (Nov 10, 2026)

Questions Still Open

• Is mobile fixable? There is no new hit yet. Top Goal is still in soft launch, and Zynga is about 34% of FY2027 bookings.

• Is guidance conservative? Q3 bookings guidance of $3.35B–$3.50B was slightly under the Street’s $3.51B. The Q3 consensus is $3.43B revenue and $3.98 EPS.

• Can the numbers deliver? Consensus EPS for FY2027 is $6.94, against $4.10 in FY2026. That is a steep step up that rests almost entirely on one launch.

Next Catalysts

1. GTA VI launch, Nov 19, 2026. Early sales, reviews and engagement will test the “unprecedented” pre-order claims. A move in Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) above its 52-week high of $265.94 would signal the market is pricing in a blockbuster.

2. Fiscal Q3 results, Feb 8, 2027 (tentative). This is the first print with GTA VI sales in it. Estimates are $3.43B revenue and $3.98 EPS.

3. GTA Online and recurring revenue. TD Cowen’s $284 target uses 18.5x FY2029 EBITDA, when GTA VI Online contributes a full year. Read more (Nov 10, 2026)

4. NBA 2K and mobile recovery through the second half.

Street View and Risks

Targets range from $262 to $330: BTIG $262, Oppenheimer $280, TD Cowen $284, UBS $295 (cut from $300), Jefferies and Macquarie $300, JPMorgan $310, BofA $330. The bear case is a lot of expectation resting on one title. A sub-par launch, a delay or a weaker-than-assumed unit count would hit hard. InvestingPro also flags the stock as trading above its Fair Value, per Jefferies’ note. Consensus revisions are positive: EPS estimates are up 2.41% over 30 days.