Don’t listen to the alarmists: The bond market isn’t in a troublesome, sinister place, it’s calm.
Two pieces of evidence for your perusal: One, the MOVE Index. Think of it as a gauge reflecting the market’s expectation of volatility in the Treasury market, essentially a ‘VIX’ for bonds. It has closed below 90 practically every day this month. We had only closed above that level since mid-February when President Donald Trump started using his tariff strategy in earnest.
Then there’s the outright level of 10-year yields, which have vacillated between 4.34% and 4.48%, almost all of this month. It’s a narrow range that doesn’t tell us much about the direction of yields or the message of the bond market.
