Adam Levy, The Motley Fool
5 min read
Even if you don’t hold any bonds in your portfolio, paying attention to the market can offer some very valuable insights about your stock portfolio. Some investors may have found that out the hard way recently.
CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV), the leading neocloud company backed by Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), saw its stock pummeled after venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya shared a chart on social media showing its recently issued bonds set to expire in 2032 touched a 15% yield. CoreWeave issued the bonds with a 9.625% coupon in June. Reuters later reported that the 9.75% notes CoreWeave issued in April due in 2031 topped a yield of 16%.
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The rising yields on CoreWeave’s debt indicate the market believes CoreWeave’s risk of default is increasing. Doubts are starting to creep in about whether the neocloud company can generate returns on its invested capital that exceed the cost of capital, especially amid a rising interest rate environment. Other neocloud companies such as Nebius (NASDAQ: NBIS) face similar pressures.
That’s bad news for Nvidia and its investors.
Nvidia’s future is tied to CoreWeave and the neoclouds
Nvidia’s biggest customers may be the big investment-grade tech companies building out robust platforms and their own AI stacks, but the neoclouds present one of its biggest sources of growth going forward. Nvidia made efforts to ensure that when it made strategic investments in CoreWeave and Nebius earlier this year. The chipmaker invested $2 billion in each of the neoclouds. As such, any decline in their stock prices has an immediate impact on Nvidia’s balance sheet.
Nvidia also signed an agreement with CoreWeave last year to buy any unused capacity from CoreWeave through 2032. While Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says he doesn’t think the company will have to step in, it’s still a liability that hangs over the company. CoreWeave cites its $104 billion backlog of contracted revenue as a defense against the need for a backstop. Management says that’s more than enough to cover its debt obligations.
Most importantly for Nvidia, the neocloud companies are dedicated to building with Nvidia. Nvidia’s strategic investments and willingness to help finance purchases are key reasons. But if the rising cost of capital catches up with the neoclouds before they can deliver returns, a key driver of Nvidia’s sales growth could become a massive drag.
