Wednesday, Aug. 26, 2026, is going to be a big day for investors.
At 8:30 a.m. ET, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to release an estimate of Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) as well as July’s personal income and outlays report. That second report contains a personal consumption expenditures (PCE) reading, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure.
Then, after the market closes, Nvidia (NVDA +2.19%) will report its latest results at 4:20 p.m. ET. An earnings call will follow at 5 p.m.
Is the macro picture holding up? And is the AI boom still booming?
GDP grew just 1.5% while core inflation held at 3.3%
The last estimate put GDP growth at 1.5%. That’s not dire by any means, but it’s far from the numbers economists — and the market — would like to see.
Inflation is probably the less comfortable part of the picture at this point. In June, the PCE was up 3.7% from a year earlier, while core PCE — that means it excludes the more volatile inputs like gas prices — was up 3.3%. Both remain well above the Fed’s 2% target.
For investors, the combination matters more than either number alone. Firmer growth with stubborn inflation could keep interest rates higher for longer. Weak growth with stubborn inflation would be worse, since the Fed would have less room to help the economy. The friendliest result would be steady growth and cooler inflation.
Wednesday should show whether the economy is moving toward that better combination or farther away from it.
Nvidia’s data center revenue jumped 92% to $75.2 billion last quarter
The company has become something like a running receipt for the AI build-out. Its Data Center segment produced $75.2 billion of revenue last quarter, up 92% year over year. Companies are spending enormous sums on their chips in a race to build the most compute capacity they can. According to Motley Fool Research, the latest 2026 capital-spending guidance from just four companies — Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta — adds up to roughly $745 billion.
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Nvidia’s results will give investors a broad look at whether demand for the chips behind this spending spree is still accelerating. I wouldn’t treat another revenue beat as saying too much, however. That’s to be expected at this point. I would pay attention to its guidance and order book, as well as gross margin.
Wall Street expects Nvidia to guide for roughly $104.2 billion of Q3 revenue and roughly 75% non-GAAP gross margins. I’ll be watching those figures as well as the timing of its next-generation Vera Rubin chips.
I’m also very interested in what management has to say about customer financing. Nvidia recently helped arrange $500 billion in financing for customers building AI infrastructure. It also agreed to guarantee up to $105 billion to support OpenAI’s 20-year lease of an Ohio data center.
It’s certainly an interesting development to have Nvidia start to help finance its customers in this way, especially at this scale.
A friendly mix would be cooler inflation, steady growth, and strong Nvidia guidance
If cooler inflation, stable growth, and strong Nvidia guidance arrive together, the market will get fresh support, but if inflation stays hot, GDP weakens, and Nvidia’s outlook disappoints, things may get a little choppy.
