Nvidia’s big earnings day is here, and the bar is high for the chipmaker’s stock to get a boost from its upcoming results. As of Tuesday afternoon, analysts polled by LSEG expected Nvidia to post third-quarter revenue of $54.92 billion. For the company’s fiscal fourth quarter, those covering the stock expect topline guidance of about $61.66 billion. Those revenue figures point to more than 56% year-over-year growth for both periods. But traders at JPMorgan think the so-called whisper numbers are even higher. “Survey says $56.32b & $63.02b” for fiscal third and fourth quarters, respectively. That would be a $1.4 billion beat for Q3 and fourth-quarter guidance exceeding the consensus by $1.36 billion. “If feels increasingly like the weight of the world is on NVDA,” said JPMorgan’s trading desk. “On the one hand, people seem to be positioned for a beat and raise … Yet the stock has substantially de-rated, and completely round-tripped the $500b slide from [GPU Technology Conference in Washington, D.C. in late October.] Folks worry that NVDA will become a share donor, and that outperformance becomes harder as the stock becomes larger.” The options market suggests Nvidia shares could move more than 6% in either direction after the release, according to Wolfe Research. Nvidia shares have struggled lately, losing more than 10% so far in November as concern over a possible artificial intelligence bubble pressured the chipmaker. The stock is also lagging fellow AI plays AMD and Broadcom this year. YTD performance: Nvidia : up 35.1% AMD : up 90.7% Broadcom : up 46.9% Citi also noted this week that Nvidia is no longer the most popular AI stock . That said, Wolfe Research and Goldman Sachs are bullish heading into the report, noting it could get the major averages out of their recent funk: Wolfe strategist Chris Senyek: “We continue to believe that concerns over an AI bubble bursting are overblown … at least for now. Should the broader U.S. economy hit a soft patch of economic data, we think Tech/Comm Services companies are well positioned to weather a temporary storm. As such, we remain buyers of AI related stocks on share price weakness.” Goldman trading desk: “My gut feeling … Consensus beat & raise… key focus will be commentary about pipeline beyond next quarter + any note of circularity and health of the cash flow. Am generally constructive into numbers, though expect a potentially muted reaction at first (we’ve seen more ‘normalized moves from NVDA lately), but then rally.”
The stock market is counting on Nvidia. Here are the ‘whisper numbers’ the chip giant must deliver
Nov 19, 2025
