Over the very long term, the S&P 500 index (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has generated an average annualized return of 10%. This kind of performance can build substantial wealth given enough time.
But investors have benefited from more remarkable gains recently. In the past decade, the benchmark has produced a total return of 325% (as of June 30), translating to a wonderful compound yearly rate of 15.5%. There are worries now that investors have overextended themselves.
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The stock market is flashing a clear warning. Here’s what history says could happen in 2026 and beyond.
Valuation is in the spotlight
A popular metric that investors can use to assess the stock market’s valuation is the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio. This figure uses the traditional price-to-earnings multiple, but also looks at profits over the last 10 years and incorporates inflationary trends. Currently, the CAPE ratio is at 41.4.
Since this data point was first tracked in 1871, the metric has only been this elevated during 1999 and 2000, which was the period of the dot-com tech frenzy. The clear takeaway is that the S&P 500 index is extremely overvalued these days.
Using historical data, asset management firm Invesco analyzed the stock market’s performance over a decade-long stretch relative to its starting CAPE ratio. The findings aren’t encouraging. According to the data, the S&P 500 index is set to produce a negative annualized return between now and 2036.
This outlook makes sense intuitively. All else equal, a more expensive starting valuation means there is less upside and more downside. The market has heightened expectations, setting a higher bar to clear in order to drive gains.
Remain bullish in the long run
Even after knowing more about the CAPE ratio, long-term investors should still strongly consider putting money to work in the stock market, perhaps via an S&P 500 exchange-traded fund. This is the smart move. There have been concerns about the market’s valuation for at least a decade, but it has obviously performed extremely well.
Investors must also understand that the stock market in 2026 is structurally different than at any point in the past. For one, the rise of passive investing has introduced massive demand, which provides support for equities.
